LKDF(002413) 民生证券·2024-08-16 10:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Recommend" rating for Leike Defense (002413 SZ) [1][3] Core Views - Leike Defense's 2Q24 revenue increased by 7% QoQ, reaching 255 million yuan, despite a YoY decline of 12 85% [1] - The company's 1H24 revenue was 494 million yuan, down 16 9% YoY, with a net loss of 66 million yuan, compared to a net profit of 135 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - The company's gross margin improved by 2 3ppt YoY to 33 4% in 1H24, while the net profit margin dropped by 35 1ppt to -12 8% [1] - Leike Defense is accelerating its transformation towards intelligent manufacturing, focusing on radar systems, satellite applications, and intelligent control [1] - The company's satellite application business, with a revenue of 90 million yuan in 1H24, is expected to see significant growth as multiple SAR and optical payload processing equipment are set to be delivered in the second half of 2024 [1] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company's 1H24 operating cash flow improved to 19 million yuan, compared to -55 million yuan in 1H23, reflecting better cash collection [1] - Leike Defense's R&D expenses increased by 5 4ppt YoY to 19 2% of total expenses in 1H24, indicating a strong focus on innovation [1] - The report forecasts Leike Defense's net profit to reach 52 million yuan in 2024, 87 million yuan in 2025, and 124 million yuan in 2026, with corresponding PE ratios of 94x, 56x, and 39x [1][2] - The company's revenue is expected to grow by 17 2% in 2024, 16 8% in 2025, and 16 7% in 2026, reaching 1 544 billion yuan, 1 803 billion yuan, and 2 105 billion yuan respectively [2] Business Segments - Radar systems contributed 210 million yuan in revenue in 1H24, down 14 55% YoY, with a gross margin of 22 05% [1] - Satellite applications generated 90 million yuan in revenue in 1H24, down 20 74% YoY, with a gross margin of 31 45% [1] - Intelligent control segment achieved 110 million yuan in revenue in 1H24, down 10 56% YoY, but with a significant gross margin improvement of 9 58ppt to 51 34% [1] - The company's smart networking and secure storage segments reported revenues of 9 million yuan and 60 million yuan respectively in 1H24, both showing YoY declines [1] Industry and Competitive Position - Leike Defense holds a leading position in real-time satellite processing technology and is expanding its ground remote sensing applications [1] - The company's proprietary radar algorithms and intelligent manufacturing capabilities provide a competitive edge in the defense and aerospace sectors [1]