中银航空租赁：净租赁收益率同比持平

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Aircraft Leasing Group (2588 HK) with a target price of HKD 82.00 [6][7]. Core Insights - In 1H24, the net leasing yield remained stable at 7%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of USD 460 million, reflecting a 76% year-on-year growth, which is within the previously forecasted range [2][3]. - The impact of aircraft recovery exceeded expectations, contributing USD 176 million to profits, higher than the initial forecast of USD 100 million [2]. - Supply chain pressures have delayed aircraft deliveries, hindering fleet expansion and rental rate growth [2][3]. - The cost of funds increased to 4.6% in 1H24, but potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the second half of the year may alleviate this pressure [2][3]. - The report anticipates that the net leasing yield for 2024 will not be lower than that of 2023, despite the delays in aircraft deliveries and the easing of funding cost pressures [3][4]. Financial Projections - The report projects a decrease in net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to USD 760 million, USD 710 million, and USD 790 million, respectively, down from previous estimates [2][3]. - Core net profit for 2024 is expected to be USD 584 million, with a target price based on a price-to-book ratio of 1.18x for 2024E [2][6]. - The company delivered 18 aircraft and signed 55 lease commitments in 1H24, with a slight increase in the owned fleet to 429 aircraft [3][4]. Market Context - The global airline industry is recovering, with a projected net profit of USD 31 billion in 2024, driven by a 13.4% year-on-year increase in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) [4]. - The report notes that aircraft manufacturers are still facing capacity constraints, which is expected to continue driving up leasing rates and aircraft values [4]. - The company plans to expand its fleet through sale-leaseback and financing leases, with a capital expenditure target of USD 4 billion for the year [4].