青岛港：量价向好，盈利上行

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Port, with a target price of 12.67 CNY, based on a comprehensive valuation approach [5][3]. Core Views - Qingdao Port, as the largest foreign trade port in Northern China, has shown stable revenue growth and consistent dividend payouts, supported by strong cargo throughput growth [1][9]. - The port's profitability is expected to improve due to a recovery in foreign trade and an increase in container throughput, with significant profit growth anticipated by 2025 [3][19]. - The report highlights the potential for fee rate recovery and operational efficiency improvements, which could further enhance profitability [2][19]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Qingdao Port is controlled by Shandong State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission and specializes in container, metal ore, coal, and crude oil handling services [10][9]. - The port's throughput growth has consistently outpaced the industry, with a strong competitive position globally [12][13]. Financial Performance - From 2014 to 2023, Qingdao Port's revenue increased from 69.26 billion CNY to 182 billion CNY, representing a growth of 163%, while net profit rose from 14.65 billion CNY to 49.23 billion CNY, a 209% increase [15][17]. - In 2023, the port achieved a return on equity (ROE) of 13% and a return on assets (ROA) of 9.4%, leading the A-share listed ports [17][1]. Growth Drivers - The recovery of foreign trade is expected to drive container throughput growth, with a correlation to inventory cycles [19][20]. - The port is actively expanding its shipping routes and inland ports, enhancing its operational capacity and market reach [26][29]. Profitability Outlook - The report forecasts significant profit growth for Qingdao Port, with net profits projected at 51.2 billion CNY, 57.6 billion CNY, and 59.5 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3][4]. - The potential for fee rate increases and improved capacity utilization is expected to further boost ROE and overall valuation [2][19].