老白干酒：老白干深度跟踪报告：四大边际改善，利好河北地产酒龙头

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 25.50 CNY per share [3][5][37]. Core Views - The issuance of special government bonds is expected to stimulate demand in the Hebei liquor market, with a projected 20% year-on-year increase in fixed asset investment projects in the first half of 2024 [2][12]. - The competitive landscape for Hebei liquor is improving, with reduced competition from the mid-to-low end segment due to adjustments at the competitor Congtai [2][23]. - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements, which could significantly enhance profit margins [2][24][26]. - Wuling liquor is leading high-end growth and is expected to expand its market presence across the province [2][27][28]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The company is rated as "Buy" with a target price of 25.50 CNY, based on a valuation of 233.31 billion CNY [3][5][37]. Financial Forecast - Earnings per share are projected to be 0.91 CNY, 1.18 CNY, and 1.45 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3][37]. - Revenue for 2023 is expected to be 5,257 million CNY, with a growth rate of 13% [4]. Market Demand and Competition - The Hebei liquor market is projected to benefit from increased economic activity due to government investment, with a market size of approximately 370 billion CNY in 2023 [2][17]. - The main price range for liquor consumption in Hebei is around 150 CNY, which is lower than other provinces like Anhui and Jiangsu [2][17]. - The competitive pressure from Congtai is expected to ease, allowing the company to increase its market share in Hebei [2][23]. Profitability and Cost Management - The company has a high expense ratio compared to its peers, but there is significant room for improvement in cost management [24][26]. - In Q1 2024, the sales expense ratio was 22.9%, showing a year-on-year decrease of 3.0 percentage points, while the net profit margin improved to 12.05% [26][24]. High-End Market Growth - Wuling liquor is positioned as a high-end product and is expected to capture a larger share of the local market, with a strong growth trajectory [27][34]. - The brand has been actively engaging in consumer education and brand-building activities to strengthen its market presence [28][34].