迎驾贡酒：2024H1业绩点评：长风破浪，踏波稳进

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - In H1 2024, the company's revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 20.4% and 29.6% year-on-year, respectively, with Q2 showing a revenue growth of 19.0% and net profit growth of 28.0% [2] - The company is focusing on enhancing its network and marketing quality, with the "洞藏" series showing strong growth. In Q2, the revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor increased by 24.9%, with the "洞藏" series maintaining a growth rate of over 30% [2][3] - The company has maintained stable cash collection, with a cash collection ratio of 107% in Q2, although there was a slight decline in pre-collection [2] - The net profit margin increased by 2.2 percentage points to 32.0% in Q2, driven by a rise in gross margin and a significant reduction in sales and management expenses [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue (in million yuan) is projected to grow from 6,720 in 2023 to 8,080 in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20.23% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 2,288 million yuan in 2023 to 2,901 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 26.81% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to increase from 2.86 yuan in 2023 to 3.63 yuan in 2024 [1] Market Dynamics - The company is expected to benefit from the resilience of mass consumption, particularly in the core market, with a focus on price upgrades in the mainstream consumption segment [3] - The company is expanding its market presence in Anhui province, leveraging sales binding and marketing empowerment to enhance terminal sales [3] Valuation and Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders has been raised to 29.0 billion yuan for 2024, with expected growth rates of 27%, 23%, and 21% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 14, 11, and 9 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3]