KELUN PHARMA(002422) 东吴证券·2024-08-17 07:08Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [1][4]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first half of 2024 reached 11.83 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 10%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.80 billion yuan, up 28% year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit of 1.75 billion yuan, increasing by 30% [3]. - The growth in profits exceeded expectations, driven by multiple business segments working in synergy. Key factors include the expansion of the infusion market, optimization of product structure, recovery in raw material prices, and the implementation of an "innovation-driven" strategy [3]. - The company is expected to maintain steady long-term growth through advancements in large-volume infusions, generic drugs, and raw material upgrades [3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for total revenue from 2024 to 2026 is as follows: 23.27 billion yuan in 2024, 25.30 billion yuan in 2025, and 27.82 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.48%, 8.71%, and 9.97% respectively [2][4]. - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is 2.95 billion yuan in 2024, 3.53 billion yuan in 2025, and 4.24 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 20.09%, 19.68%, and 20.22% respectively [2][4]. Financial Metrics - The latest diluted earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.84 yuan in 2024, 2.20 yuan in 2025, and 2.65 yuan in 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 16.68, 13.93, and 11.59 [2][4]. - The company's market capitalization is approximately 49.18 billion yuan, with a closing price of 30.71 yuan per share [5]. Strategic Developments - The company is actively pursuing innovation, with collaborations such as the one with Merck, which is expected to yield milestone revenues in the future. The report highlights the potential for significant contributions from new products in the pipeline [3][4]. - The company is also focusing on high-value products in the infusion market and expanding its market share through product structure optimization [3]. Summary of Financial Health - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 40.46 billion yuan in 2024 to 47.51 billion yuan in 2026, while total liabilities are expected to increase from 13.76 billion yuan to 14.60 billion yuan over the same period [8]. - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to improve from 12.87% in 2024 to 15.53% in 2026, indicating enhanced profitability [9].