GWMOTOR(601633) 申万宏源·2024-08-17 09:38Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Great Wall Motors (GWM) with a target PE of 19x for 2024, implying a +30% upside from the current valuation [4][8] Core Views - GWM's overseas sales, particularly in Russia, have exceeded expectations, driving significant profit growth [4][8] - The company's localization strategy in key markets like Russia and South America provides a competitive edge in terms of cost and market penetration [4][9] - GWM's product portfolio expansion into SUVs, pickups, and electric vehicles (EVs) aligns with global market trends, especially in emerging markets [8][9] Market Performance - GWM's stock closed at CNY 22.28 on August 15, 2024, with a market capitalization of CNY 137.636 billion [2] - The stock's price-to-book ratio is 2.7x, and the dividend yield is 1.35% [2] Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024E is projected at CNY 193.138 billion, with a YoY growth of 11.5% [6] - Net profit for 2024E is expected to reach CNY 13.022 billion, an 85.5% increase YoY [6] - EPS for 2024E is forecasted at CNY 1.52, with a PE ratio of 15x [6] Regional Market Analysis Russia - GWM's sales in Russia surged from 3,228 units in January 2022 to 18,999 units in December 2023, driven by the exit of Western automakers and localization benefits [4][19] - The company's local production in Russia allows it to avoid tariffs and benefit from tax rebates, significantly enhancing profitability [4][50] - GWM's market share in Russia is expected to grow, with 2024 sales projected at 218,400 units, driven by strong demand for SUVs and pickups [53] South America - GWM is focusing on Brazil, the largest market in South America, with local production facilities in Brazil and Ecuador [4][9] - The company aims to capitalize on the growing SUV and pickup segments, with 2024 sales projected at 38,000 units, rising to 58,500 units in 2025 [4][9] Australia - GWM's market share in Australia remains low but stable, with a focus on SUVs and pickups [54][58] - The company's electric vehicle, the Ola Good Cat, has gained traction, and GWM plans to expand its EV offerings in the region [54][58] Thailand - GWM's presence in Thailand is relatively small, but the company aims to leverage its EV brand, Ola, to increase market share [4][9] - Sales in Thailand are projected to reach 11,000 units in 2024 and 15,500 units in 2025 [4][9] Product Strategy - GWM is expanding its product lineup from SUVs and pickups to include sedans and MPVs, targeting global markets [8] - The company's EV offerings, particularly the Ola brand, are expected to drive future growth in markets with increasing EV penetration [4][9] Competitive Landscape - GWM faces competition from other Chinese automakers like Chery and Geely in key markets such as Russia [44][48] - The company's localization strategy and strong product portfolio provide a competitive advantage in emerging markets [4][50] Valuation and Peer Comparison - GWM's 2024E PE ratio of 15x is lower than peers like BYD, Seres, and Changan Auto, indicating potential upside [4][8] - The report uses a target PE of 19x based on peer valuations, suggesting a 30% upside from the current price [4][8]