迎驾贡酒：Q2利润超预期，洞藏持续释能

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4][11]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.79 billion RMB for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.38 billion RMB, up 29.6% year-on-year [2]. - In Q2 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 1.46 billion RMB, with a net profit of 470 million RMB, both exceeding market expectations [2]. - The company continues to optimize its product structure, with significant improvements in cost efficiency and a sustained upgrade in product offerings [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - For H1 2024, the company achieved revenues of 3.79 billion RMB, a 20.4% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.38 billion RMB, up 29.6% [2]. - Q2 revenue was 1.46 billion RMB, reflecting a 19.0% year-on-year growth, while net profit reached 470 million RMB, a 28.0% increase [2]. Operational Analysis - The company demonstrated resilience in Q2 despite high base effects, with revenue from mid-to-high-end and regular liquor segments reaching 2.95 billion RMB and 670 million RMB respectively, marking year-on-year increases of 24.5% and 9.3% [3]. - The gross margin improved by 0.6 percentage points to 71.1% in Q2, driven by a reduction in sales and management expense ratios [3]. - The company’s net profit margin increased by 2.2 percentage points to 31.9% in Q2, attributed to improved gross margins and reduced expense ratios [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are expected to grow by 22.4%, 19.9%, and 17.9% respectively, while net profit is forecasted to increase by 25.8%, 22.9%, and 21.0% [4]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 3.60 RMB, 4.42 RMB, and 5.35 RMB respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 14.1, 11.5, and 9.5 [4].