今世缘2024Q2点评：稳步达成十四五目标

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is steadily achieving its 14th Five-Year Plan goals, with a strong performance in revenue and profit growth [1] - For Q2 2024, total revenue reached 2.634 billion yuan, up 21.5% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 929 million yuan, up 16.9% [1] - The company expects to complete its annual collection targets post the Mid-Autumn Festival, focusing on inventory reduction in Q4 [1] Revenue Performance - In H1 2024, total revenue was 7.305 billion yuan, an increase of 22.4% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 2.461 billion yuan, up 20.1% [1] - The core product V3 is expected to maintain a growth rate of 25-30% due to a low base and high marketing investment [1] - Regional performance showed significant growth, with Suzhong area increasing by 32.5% year-on-year [1] Profitability Analysis - The gross margin for Q2 2024 rose by 0.15 percentage points to 73.02%, while the net profit margin decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 35.27% due to reduced investment income [1] - The company maintains a stable overall profitability, with expectations for continued growth in net profit margins in the coming years [1][2] Financial Forecast - The company forecasts total revenue of 12.409 billion yuan, 15.041 billion yuan, and 17.976 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.9%, 21.2%, and 19.5% [2][4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 3.821 billion yuan, 4.693 billion yuan, and 5.646 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 21.9%, 22.8%, and 20.3% respectively [2][4]