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TAL INTERNATIONAL GROUP INC:好未来2025财年第一季度点评报告:25财年二季度或加大投入,锚定未来增长
TALTAL(TAL) 浙商证券·2024-08-18 02:23

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for TAL [5][6] Core Views - TAL's FY2025Q1 revenue reached 414million,up50.4414 million, up 50.4% YoY, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 5% [1] - Non-GAAP operating profit turned positive at 0.876 million with a 0.2% margin, better than Bloomberg's -7% expectation [1] - The company is expected to increase investments in Q2 FY2025, which may temporarily pressure margins but is aimed at future growth [4] Business Segments Learning Services - Offline quality education revenue grew by high double digits YoY in FY2025Q1, with over 400 outlets compared to 200 in FY2024Q1 [2] - Online school business saw strong performance in customer acquisition, with high double-digit sales growth on Douyin from January to July [2] - Deferred revenue increased to 640millioninFY2025Q1,up66640 million in FY2025Q1, up 66% YoY [2] Content Solutions - Launched the "Xueersi Learning Machine Classic Edition 2024" in May 2024, with estimated sales of 100,000 units in Q1 FY2025 [3] - The company is leveraging AI and technology to enhance product differentiation, such as the new math search and Q&A tool "Jiuzhang Suishiwen" [3] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for FY2025-FY2027 is projected to be 2.064 billion, 2.603billion,and2.603 billion, and 2.951 billion, with YoY growth of 38%, 26%, and 13% respectively [5] - Net income attributable to shareholders is expected to be 17million,17 million, 111 million, and 183millionforFY2025FY2027[5]NonGAAPnetincomeisforecastedat183 million for FY2025-FY2027 [5] - Non-GAAP net income is forecasted at 104 million, 196million,and196 million, and 266 million for the same period [5] Historical Context - TAL achieved a 46% CAGR in revenue from FY2010 to FY2021, driven by high-quality education services and standardized teaching systems [4] - Current store count of 400+ represents 36% of pre-"Double Reduction" levels, indicating significant growth potential [4]