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江苏银行:2024年半年报点评:以量补价,不良压力略有提升

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Jiangsu Bank is maintained at "Neutral" [1][3] Core Views - Jiangsu Bank's profitability remains high, with a revenue of 41.6 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, and a net profit of 18.7 billion yuan, up 10.0% year-on-year [1] - The bank's net interest margin is reported at 1.90%, a decrease of 38 basis points year-on-year, primarily due to declining loan rates [1] - The bank's total assets reached 3.77 trillion yuan by the end of June, with a loan balance of 2.05 trillion yuan, reflecting growth of 10.8% and 8.8% respectively since the beginning of the year [1] - The non-performing loan ratio slightly increased to 0.89% by the end of June, but overall risk remains controllable [1] Financial Forecasts - The forecast for net profit for 2024-2026 is set at 31.7 billion yuan, 35.4 billion yuan, and 40.6 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.2%, 11.9%, and 14.6% [1][2] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.73 yuan, 1.93 yuan, and 2.21 yuan respectively [2][4] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to be 4.4x, 4.0x, and 3.5x for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, while the price-to-book (PB) ratio is projected at 0.60x, 0.54x, and 0.49x [1][2] Asset Quality Indicators - The non-performing loan ratio is forecasted to remain stable at around 0.91% for 2024 and 2025 [4] - The provision coverage ratio is expected to be 370% in 2024 and 2025, indicating a strong buffer against potential loan losses [4]