CBC(SH:600132) Tianfeng Securities·2024-08-18 10:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price indicating a potential upside of over 20% within the next six months [5][14]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 8.861 billion and a net profit of 0.901 billion for the first half of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.18% and 4.19% respectively [1]. - The second quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 4.568 billion and a net profit of 0.449 billion, with a slight revenue increase of 1.54% but a decline in net profit by 5.99% year-on-year [1]. - The company expects stable profit growth for the full year, supported by the acceleration of its urban project and cost reductions in raw materials [3]. Sales and Pricing - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved a sales volume of 1.7838 million kiloliters, up 3.30% year-on-year, with a beer business price per ton of 4,835 yuan, a slight increase of 0.3% [2]. - The second quarter sales volume was 917,000 tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, while the beer price per ton decreased by 0.7% [2]. - Revenue from high-end, mainstream, and economy segments in the first half of 2024 was 5.26 billion, 3.17 billion, and 0.19 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth of 2.8%, 4.4%, and 11.5% [2]. Cost and Profitability - The cost per ton increased by 2.1% year-on-year in the second quarter, influenced by new depreciation from the production of the Foshan factory [3]. - The net profit margin decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 19.7% in the second quarter, while the first half saw a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points to 20.3% [3]. - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio, with 83%, 100%, and 101% for the years 2021 to 2023, and a current TTM dividend yield of 4.9% [3]. Financial Forecast - The revenue growth rates for 2024 to 2026 are projected at 3%, 4%, and 4% respectively, with corresponding revenue amounts of 15.3 billion, 15.8 billion, and 16.5 billion [3]. - The net profit growth rates for the same period are expected to be 4%, 5%, and 6%, with net profit amounts of 1.39 billion, 1.46 billion, and 1.55 billion [3]. - The price-to-earnings ratios for 2024 to 2026 are forecasted at 20X, 19X, and 18X respectively [3].