Guangdong Mingyang Electric -明阳电气：向海外和海上拓展，开辟新空间

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to Mingyang Electric (301291) [2] Core Views - Mingyang Electric is a leading enterprise in new energy electrical equipment, with 80% of its 2023 revenue coming from the new energy sector [2] - The company is expanding into overseas markets and offshore wind power, opening up new growth opportunities [2] - Revenue from photovoltaic, wind power, and energy storage sectors grew by 83%, 22%, and 237% YoY respectively in 2023 [2] - The company's 2023 revenue reached 4.948 billion yuan, up 52.91% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 87.92% to 498 million yuan [2] Market and Industry Analysis - The global power transmission and distribution equipment market is expected to reach $44.54 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 4.4% from 2024 to 2030 [3] - The global box-type substation market is projected to grow from 43.5 billion yuan to 59.6 billion yuan by 2030, with a CAGR of 4.5% [3] - The low/medium voltage switchgear market is expected to grow from$ 57.71 billion in 2023 to $71.8 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 3.1% [3] - The transformer market is forecasted to grow from$ 23.54 billion in 2023 to $30.65 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 3.9% [3] Financial Performance and Projections - 2024/25 net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 627 million yuan and 822 million yuan, with EPS of 2.01 yuan and 2.63 yuan respectively [4] - Revenue is expected to grow by 25.3% in 2024, 19.3% in 2025, and 10.6% in 2026 [5] - Gross margin is forecasted to be 21.6% in 2024, 22.2% in 2025, and 22.6% in 2026 [5] - ROE is projected to increase from 11.8% in 2023 to 15.8% in 2026 [5] Product Segment Analysis - Box-type substation revenue is expected to grow by 30% in 2024, 20% in 2025, and 10% in 2026, with gross margins of 20.5%, 21.0%, and 21.3% respectively [6] - Transformer revenue is projected to grow by 30% in 2024, 20% in 2025, and 10% in 2026, with gross margins of 26%, 27%, and 28% respectively [6] - Complete switchgear revenue is expected to decline by 10% in 2024 but grow by 10% in both 2025 and 2026, with a consistent gross margin of 18% [6] Valuation and Peer Comparison - The report suggests a 2024 PE range of 18-22X, with a fair value range of 36.18-44.22 yuan [8] - Comparable companies include Jinpan Technology (688676) with a 2024E PE of 22X, TBEA (600089) with 8X, and Baiyun Electric (603861) with 18X [9]