lolo(000848) 东方证券·2024-08-19 03:38Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 8.68 CNY based on a 14x price-to-earnings ratio for 2024 [2][4][6]. Core Insights - The company is actively developing diverse new products, with almond milk and walnut milk showing significant growth potential, particularly in southern markets [1][2]. - Almond prices are expected to decline, which may enhance the gross margin for almond products in the upcoming quarters [1][2]. - The company has strong cash flow and a high dividend yield, providing a solid safety margin for investments [1]. Summary by Sections Product Development and Market Expansion - The company is focusing on new product launches to meet diverse consumer demands, with almond milk and walnut milk showing promising sales growth [1]. - The revenue from "other markets" reached 100 million CNY in 2023, marking an 88% year-on-year increase, indicating strong potential in southern regions [1]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company’s revenue for 2023 was 2,955 million CNY, with a projected growth of 9.5% for 2024 [5]. - The gross margin for 2023 was 41.46%, down 3.39 percentage points from the previous year, but is expected to recover in 2024 due to lower almond prices [1][2]. - Earnings per share are forecasted to be 0.62 CNY in 2024, 0.75 CNY in 2025, and 0.86 CNY in 2026 [2][5]. Cash Flow and Dividend Policy - The company reported operating cash inflow of 3.3 billion CNY in 2023, with cash reserves of 3.15 billion CNY at the end of Q1 2024, supporting a high dividend payout ratio of 66% [1][2]. - The dividend yield for 2023 was 4.9%, ranking among the top in the industry [1].