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贝克微：上半年业绩强劲，保持积极展望
02149BaTeLab(02149) 招银国际·2024-08-19 05:39

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 49.8, based on 19x 2024 forecasted P/E [1][2] Core Views - Strong H1 2024 performance with revenue up 42.1% YoY to RMB 291 million and net profit up 46.3% YoY to RMB 67 million [1] - Revenue growth driven by expanded product portfolio (over 500 models by H1 2024), deepened customer relationships, and distribution network expansion [1] - Gross margin declined to 51.3% in H1 2024 due to increased inventory write-down provisions, but core gross margin remained stable at 55.2% [1] - Net margin improved to 23.1% in H1 2024, compared to 22.4% in H1 2023 and 23.5% in 2023 [1] - Revenue expected to grow at 40.2% and 37.8% in 2024 and 2025, respectively, driven by product diversification and strong distributor relationships [2] Financial Performance - Revenue CAGR of 73.6% from 2020 to 2023, with product portfolio expanding from 8 models in 2020 to over 500 models by H1 2024 [2] - 90% of H1 2024 revenue came from distributors, up from 87.5% in 2023 [2] - Forecasted revenue for 2024 and 2025 at RMB 650 million and RMB 896 million, respectively, with net profit of RMB 146 million and RMB 210 million [3][8] - Gross margin expected to stabilize at 53%-55% from 2024 to 2026 [2] Valuation - Current 2024 and 2025 P/E ratios at 10x and 7x, respectively, considered highly attractive [2] - Target price implies a potential upside of 102.4% from the current price of HKD 24.6 [4] Industry and Market Position - Leading supplier of industrial-grade analog IC patterned wafers in China with proprietary EDA software and reusable IP library [1] - Strong R&D capabilities and execution by management team evidenced by rapid product portfolio expansion [2] Financial Projections - Forecasted sales revenue for 2024 and 2025 at RMB 650 million and RMB 896 million, with net profit of RMB 146 million and RMB 210 million [3][8] - Operating profit expected to grow at 36.1% and 42.5% in 2024 and 2025, respectively [3] - ROE projected to improve from 16.1% in 2024 to 22.6% in 2026 [3]