Goldcard(SZ:300349) China Post Securities·2024-08-19 06:30Investment Rating - Buy rating, first-time coverage [2] Core Views - The company's Q2 performance was under pressure, with Q2 revenue growth of -6.1% and net profit attributable to the parent company declining by 5.5% YoY, mainly due to the impact of the Chongqing gas incident and a relatively high base [3] - Gross margin increased by 1.44pct YoY to 41.80% in H1 2024, with smart residential gas terminal and system gross margin up 1.35pct to 35.94%, while smart commercial gas terminal and system gross margin decreased by 0.21pct to 57.38% [3] - The company's gas/water business is expected to benefit from the equipment renewal policy, with over 20 provincial and municipal governments having issued relevant implementation measures [3] - The company is proactively investing in R&D, with multiple products applicable to hydrogen energy measurement and ongoing development of products in the process measurement field, which is expected to bring new growth points [3] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue is expected to be 3.38 billion, 3.80 billion, and 4.26 billion yuan in 2024-2026, with YoY growth rates of 6.57%, 12.31%, and 12.20% respectively [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 446 million, 519 million, and 602 million yuan in 2024-2026, with YoY growth rates of 9.10%, 16.47%, and 15.89% respectively [4] - The company's 2024-2026 PE ratios are expected to be 10.13x, 8.70x, and 7.50x respectively [4] Financial Highlights - In H1 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.48 billion yuan, up 2.1% YoY, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 218 million yuan, up 5.29% YoY [3] - The company's period expense ratio increased by 2.7pct YoY to 28.48% in H1 2024, with sales, management, financial, and R&D expense ratios increasing by 1.20, 0.39, 0.75, and 0.36pct respectively [3] - The company's 2024-2026 EPS is expected to be 1.06, 1.23, and 1.43 yuan respectively [6] Industry and Market Context - The company operates in the machinery and equipment industry, with a focus on digital gas, digital water, and expansion into new scenarios such as hydrogen energy and process measurement [4] - The company's stock price has fluctuated between 8.91 and 14.57 yuan over the past 52 weeks, with a current price of 10.73 yuan [1]