通威股份：多晶硅龙头地位稳固，电池片收购“逆周期”扩张

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy - A" with a target price of 21.33 CNY over the next six months [4]. Core Views - The company has established a solid position as a leader in the polysilicon market and is expanding its battery cell business through acquisitions during a cyclical downturn [1][3]. - The company reported a revenue of 139.1 billion CNY in 2023, a decrease of 2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 13.6 billion CNY, down 47% year-on-year, primarily due to rapid price declines in the photovoltaic supply chain [1]. - The company has a global market share of over 25% in high-purity polysilicon and has maintained its position as the world's largest solar cell supplier for seven consecutive years, with a total shipment of 81 GW in 2023, a 68% increase year-on-year [1][2]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company was founded in 1986 and transitioned from a fish feed manufacturer to a significant player in the photovoltaic industry after acquiring Yongxiang Co. It has developed an integrated production capacity that includes high-purity polysilicon, solar cells, and modules [1]. Capacity Expansion - The company plans to increase its high-purity polysilicon production capacity to 850,000 tons by the end of 2024, with a total solar cell capacity of 100 GW expected by the end of 2024 [2]. - The company’s component production capacity reached 75 GW by the end of 2023, with ongoing expansions planned [2]. Strategic Acquisitions - On August 13, 2024, the company announced plans to acquire over 51% of Runyang Co. for no more than 5 billion CNY, marking the largest acquisition in the solar cell industry’s history. This acquisition is expected to significantly impact the industry’s capacity clearing and long-term structural development [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 110.2 billion CNY, 138.2 billion CNY, and 161.9 billion CNY, respectively, with net profits expected to recover to 60 billion CNY by 2026 [6][7]. - The company is expected to face challenges in 2024 due to price declines in the photovoltaic supply chain but is projected to return to profitability in 2025 as market conditions improve [6].