BYD(002594) 国海证券·2024-08-19 13:08Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BYD (002594) [2] Core Views - BYD's overseas expansion is accelerating, and a new product cycle is beginning, with expected growth in revenue and other performance metrics [2] - The company's domestic market share continues to rise, and its overseas market share is expected to grow significantly [2] - BYD's overseas sales are projected to increase from 462,000 units in 2024 to 910,000 units in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 90.5%, 42.3%, and 38.3% respectively [2][26] Market Data - Current price: ¥235.42 [1] - 52-week price range: ¥162.77-¥270.10 [1] - Total market capitalization: ¥684,899.37 million [1] - Average daily trading volume: ¥1,662.45 million [1] Domestic Market Analysis - BYD's domestic market share in passenger vehicle retail sales was 8.8% in 2022, 12.5% in 2023, and 16.4% in April 2024 [3] - The company launched the Honor Edition models in Q1 2024 and introduced the 5th generation DMi technology in May 2024, which is expected to further boost domestic market share [3] Overseas Market Analysis - BYD's overseas sales structure in 2022 was dominated by the Middle East and Africa (41%), Europe (21%), and Australia (17%), with the Yuan PLUS model accounting for 74.6% of overseas sales [1] - In 2024, Latin America (36.1%), Southeast Asia (23.7%), and Europe (15%) became the main markets, with new models like the Song PLUS, Seagull, and Destroyer 05 gaining traction [1][19] - BYD's overseas passenger vehicle sales are expected to grow from 56,000 units in 2022 to 910,000 units in 2026, driven by new model launches and overseas factory construction [2][26] Overseas Expansion and Challenges - BYD is accelerating overseas factory construction, with facilities in Brazil, Hungary, and Uzbekistan expected to mitigate the impact of trade barriers [3][18] - The EU imposed a 17.4% provisional tariff on BYD's electric vehicles, which is lower than expected and is not expected to significantly impact overall business due to the relatively small proportion of European sales (15% of total overseas sales) [23][24] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from ¥785.9 billion in 2024 to ¥1,037.2 billion in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 30%, 17%, and 13% respectively [2][29] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from ¥37.01 billion in 2024 to ¥58.75 billion in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 23%, 27%, and 25% respectively [2][29] - EPS is forecasted to rise from ¥12.72 in 2024 to ¥20.19 in 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19x, 15x, and 12x [2][29] Overseas Sales Structure - In 2024, Latin America (36.1%) and Southeast Asia (23.7%) are the largest markets, with Europe and the Middle East and Africa following [19] - New models like the Song PLUS, Seagull, and Destroyer 05 are expected to increase their share in overseas sales, replacing the Yuan PLUS as the main model [20][27]