天山铝业：Q2铝价抬升增厚公司业绩

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company's revenue for 1H24 was 13.785 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 6.83%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.074 billion RMB, an increase of 103.45% year-on-year [2] - The significant increase in profits in Q2 2024 was driven by a substantial rise in aluminum ingot and alumina prices, with the average domestic aluminum ingot price reaching 20,500 RMB per ton, up 7.82% quarter-on-quarter and 10.9% year-on-year [3] - The company's integrated layout advantages are becoming more evident, with the Guinea bauxite project entering production, expected to meet the company's raw material needs and significantly reduce bauxite raw material costs [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H24, the company achieved an electrolytic aluminum production of 585,400 tons, slightly up year-on-year, and alumina production of 1.093 million tons, an increase of 6.8% year-on-year [3] - The company forecasts revenues of 36 billion RMB, 38.1 billion RMB, and 40.7 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits of 4.338 billion RMB, 4.803 billion RMB, and 5.061 billion RMB for the same years [4][8] Market Position and Strategy - The completion of the Tianzu Railway dedicated line is expected to reduce transportation costs and emissions, enhancing operational efficiency [3] - The company benefits from tax incentives as its subsidiary was recognized as a "National High-tech Enterprise," allowing it to pay a reduced corporate income tax rate of 15% [3] Industry Outlook - The report anticipates that the supply-demand gap in the electrolytic aluminum sector will widen, leading to improved profitability stability in the industry, particularly as demand from new energy vehicles and photovoltaics grows [3]