ACCELINK(002281) 民生证券·2024-08-20 02:41Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, with a target price of 30.25 CNY [2] Core Views - The company is a leading player in the optical communication industry with comprehensive vertical integration capabilities, covering the entire supply chain from chips to subsystems [1] - AI-driven demand for high-speed optical modules (400G/800G/1.6T) is expected to be a key growth driver, with the company well-positioned due to its advanced product portfolio and self-sufficient chip capabilities [1][5] - The company's traditional telecom transmission business remains a strong foundation, with domestic 400G backbone network upgrades and data center interconnect (DCI) demand providing significant growth opportunities [1][5] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow from 6,061 million CNY in 2023 to 13,255 million CNY in 2026, with a CAGR of 24.5% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from 619 million CNY in 2023 to 1,505 million CNY in 2026, with a CAGR of 36.3% [2] - The company's PE ratio is expected to decline from 34x in 2024 to 16x in 2026, reflecting strong earnings growth [2] Industry Analysis Optical Communication Market - The global optical module market is expected to grow by 27% in 2024, driven by AI-related demand for 400G/800G modules [28] - Silicon photonics is gaining traction, with its market share in optical modules projected to increase from 24% in 2022 to 44% by 2028 [29] - Emerging technologies like LPO (Linear-drive Pluggable Optics) and OCS (Optical Circuit Switch) are expected to play a significant role in reducing power consumption and latency in data centers [31][33] Telecom Market - The global optical transmission market grew by 2% in 2023, with domestic 400G backbone network upgrades being a key driver [43] - The 50G PON market is expected to see rapid growth, with a CAGR of 200% from 2024 to 2028, driven by the need for higher bandwidth and lower latency in fiber access networks [50][51] Company Strengths Vertical Integration - The company has a rare capability of full vertical integration in the optical communication industry, covering chips, devices, modules, and subsystems [1][12] - It has self-sufficient capabilities in laser and detector chips, with IDM (Integrated Device Manufacturing) mode ensuring supply chain security [1][40] Product Portfolio - The company offers a comprehensive range of optical modules, including 400G, 800G, and 1.6T products, with silicon photonics and LPO technologies already in mass production [36][37] - It has a strong presence in the telecom transmission market, with products like AWG, optical amplifiers, and ITLA (Integrated Tunable Laser Assembly) being key revenue drivers [54][55] Emerging Technologies - The company is actively exploring new growth areas such as quantum communication and automotive LiDAR, with significant investments in related technologies [58][59] - It has established a joint venture in the quantum field, focusing on quantum key distribution (QKD) and quantum measurement systems [58]