wanhua(600309) 国海证券·2024-08-20 05:32Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is strengthening its advantages in polyurethane and is expected to continue growing in new materials [3] - The company has a high degree of integration in the global polyurethane industry chain and is expanding at a low cost, with MDI capacity expected to increase from 3.1 million tons in 2023 to 5.3 million tons by 2027, raising its global market share from 31% to 42% [3][31] - The company has shown resilience during industry downturns, with its polyurethane segment revenue increasing by 7% year-on-year in 2023, while competitors faced declines [3] Summary by Sections Polyurethane - Multiple overseas MDI facilities have faced force majeure events, leading to low operating rates and high-cost capacities potentially exiting the market [3] - The company’s MDI exports have been strong, with domestic exports increasing by 2% year-on-year in the first four months of 2024 [3] - The company’s polyurethane segment has demonstrated superior risk resistance during downturns, with a gross margin increase of 3.2 percentage points in 2023 [3] Petrochemicals - The petrochemical segment is expected to see a recovery in profitability, with the price difference index at a cyclical low as of August 18, 2024 [4] - The company plans to diversify raw materials for its ethylene project, which is expected to reduce costs [4] New Materials - The company invests 3 to 4 billion yuan annually in R&D, driving growth in new materials [4] - New projects, including a 20,000-ton POE plant launched in June 2024, are expected to enhance profitability [4] Earnings Forecast - Projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 190.6 billion yuan, 230.5 billion yuan, and 261.8 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 19.0 billion yuan, 25.5 billion yuan, and 31.4 billion yuan [4][10] - The company is expected to maintain a high growth trajectory, justifying the "Buy" rating [4] Market Position - The company is positioned to increase its MDI market share, with domestic MDI capacity expected to rise from 437,000 tons in 2023 to 577,000 tons by 2026 [6][31] - The company’s TDI capacity is projected to grow from 95,000 tons in 2023 to 147,000 tons by 2026, increasing its global market share from 29% to 38% [31] Financial Metrics - The company’s financial metrics indicate a strong outlook, with projected P/E ratios of 12, 9, and 7 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4][10]