Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Yancoal Australia [3][10]. Core Views - The company's production continues to recover in H1 2024, but sales prices have decreased year-on-year, impacting profit performance. Looking ahead to H2 2024, sales volume recovery is expected to accelerate, and the impact of price year-on-year comparisons is anticipated to diminish [3]. - Total revenue for H1 2024 was AUD 3.138 billion, a decrease of 21.08% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was AUD 420 million, down 56.83% year-on-year, which was below market expectations. Consequently, net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised down to AUD 1.285 billion, AUD 1.570 billion, and AUD 1.722 billion, reflecting changes of -5.18%, +2.41%, and +0.89% respectively [3]. - The average selling price for coal in H1 2024 was AUD 176 per ton, a year-on-year decrease of 37%. The average price in Q2 was around AUD 180, down 20% year-on-year, but this decline has narrowed compared to Q1's 48% drop. It is expected that the year-on-year price decline will continue to narrow in H2 2024 [3]. Production and Sales - The company's coal production rights in H1 2024 reached 16.9 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 17%, with thermal coal production at 14.9 million tons (up 24% year-on-year) and metallurgical coal sales at 2 million tons. Q2 production was 8.2 million tons, a 4% year-on-year decline, attributed to slight fluctuations in quarterly production scheduling [3]. - The company expects to maintain a full-year production target of 35-39 million tons, representing an increase of 6-56 million tons year-on-year (2-17% growth), with continued production recovery anticipated in H2 2024 [3]. Financial Health - As of the report date, the company reported operating cash flow of AUD 851 million, a significant increase of 856% year-on-year, primarily due to tax payments made in H1 2023. The company has maintained a net cash position since 2022, with a net asset liability ratio of zero and cash holdings of AUD 1.546 billion [3].
兖煤澳大利亚：2024年中报点评：产量继续恢复，销价影响或近尾声