继续看好，坚定逢低布局 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 11 月 23 日 证券研究报告 行业研究-周报 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 李睿：煤炭钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525040002 邮箱：lirui@cindasc.com 刘波： 煤炭钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525070001 邮箱：liubo1@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号 金隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 继续看好，坚定逢低布局 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 11 月 23 日 本期内容提要: [Table_Summary] 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com2 ◆ 动力煤价格方面：本周秦港价格周环比持平，产地大同价格周环比上涨。 港口动力煤：截至 11 月 22 日，秦皇岛港动力煤(Q5500)山西产市场价 827 元/吨，周环比持平。产地动力煤：截至 11 月 21 日，陕西榆林动力 ...

来源：新浪基金∞工作室 11月20日，港红利（520890）收盘涨0.00%，成交额5230.42万元。 港股通红利低波ETF（520890）成立于2024年9月4日，基金全称为华泰柏瑞恒生港股通高股息低波动交 易型开放式指数证券投资基金，基金简称为港红利。该基金管理费率每年0.50%，托管费率每年 0.10%。港股通红利低波ETF（520890）业绩比较基准为恒生港股通高股息低波动指数收益率(使用估值 汇率折算)。 规模方面，截止11月19日，港股通红利低波ETF（520890）最新份额为7200.80万份，最新规模为1.07亿 元。回顾2024年12月31日，港股通红利低波ETF（520890）份额为1.23亿份，规模为1.46亿元。即该基 金今年以来份额减少41.46%，规模减少26.98%。 流动性方面，截止11月20日，港股通红利低波ETF（520890）近20个交易日累计成交金额8.43亿元，日 均成交金额4216.72万元；今年以来，214个交易日，累计成交金额42.23亿元，日均成交金额1973.28万 元。 港股通红利低波ETF（520890）现任基金经理为李茜。李茜自2024年9月4日管理 ...

智通财经APP获悉，煤炭股延续跌势，截至发稿，中煤能源(01898)跌4.48%，报10.87港元；兖矿能源 (01171)跌3.71%，报10.63港元；中国神华(01088)跌1.56%，报40.36港元；兖煤澳大利亚(03668)跌 0.87%，报27.22港元。 国泰海通证券发布研报称，煤价继续上涨至830元/吨以上，短期煤价超预期上涨或告一段落。10月份， 规上工业原煤产量4.1亿吨，同比下降2.3%，但环比持平。从长期逻辑来看，本轮煤价上涨的核心原 因，是5月份以来煤炭行业供需格局发生根本性逆转。基于这一核心变化，煤炭价格中期向上的大趋势 不会改变。 东吴证券则表示，从高股息逻辑分析，受益于煤价在2025年二季度见底，煤炭上市公司业绩从三季度开 始触底，预计未来煤价相对稳定造就龙头公司持续盈利稳定。预期随着保险资金成本的持续下降，最终 高分红标的中国神华、陕西煤业股息率将有望从2025年4.5%左右股息率下降至2026年中3.5%左右。 ...

Group 1 - Coal stocks are experiencing significant declines, with Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (01171.HK) down 3.57% to HKD 11.06 [1] - Yancoal Australia (03668.HK) has dropped 3.42%, trading at HKD 27.64 [1] - China Shenhua Energy (01088.HK) is down 2.73%, currently at HKD 40.6 [1] - China Coal Energy (01898.HK) has decreased by 2.47%, with a price of HKD 11.46 [1]

煤炭股跌幅居前，截至发稿，兖矿能源(01171)跌3.57%，报11.06港元；兖煤澳洲(03668)跌3.42%，报 27.64港元；中国神华(01088)跌2.73%，报40.6港元；中煤能源(01898)跌2.47%，报11.46港元。 国泰海通证券发布研报称，煤价继续上涨至830元/吨以上，我们认为短期煤价超预期上涨或告一段落。 10月份，规上工业原煤产量4.1亿吨，同比下降2.3%，但环比持平。从长期逻辑来看，本轮煤价上涨的 核心原因，是5月份以来煤炭行业供需格局发生根本性逆转。基于这一核心变化，煤炭价格中期向上的 大趋势不会改变。 消息面上，2025年前三季度煤价仍同比下跌，煤企业绩同比仍回落，但在"反内卷"影响之下，第三季度 煤炭价格已环比明显修复，煤企三季度业绩环比亦明显改善。 ...

Group 1 - Coal stocks have seen significant declines, with Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (600188) down 3.57% to HKD 11.06, Yancoal Australia (03668) down 3.42% to HKD 27.64, China Shenhua Energy (601088) down 2.73% to HKD 40.6, and China Coal Energy (601898) down 2.47% to HKD 11.46 [1] - The coal prices are expected to continue to decline year-on-year until the third quarter of 2025, with coal companies' performance also expected to drop year-on-year. However, due to the "anti-involution" effect, coal prices have shown a significant recovery on a quarter-on-quarter basis in the third quarter, leading to improved quarterly performance for coal companies [1] - According to Guotai Junan Securities, if coal prices rise above CNY 830 per ton, the short-term unexpected increase in coal prices may come to an end [1] Group 2 - In October, the output of industrial raw coal from large-scale enterprises was 410 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, but remained stable on a month-on-month basis [1] - The fundamental reason for the recent increase in coal prices since May is a significant reversal in the supply-demand dynamics of the coal industry. This core change indicates that the medium-term upward trend in coal prices will not be altered [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle for the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [4][12] - The coal price is expected to rise due to factors such as cold weather and low inventory levels at ports, which may drive demand quickly [4][12] - The coal sector remains undervalued, with a strong potential for price recovery and high dividend yields, making it a favorable investment opportunity [4][12] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of November 15, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 827 CNY/ton, up 19 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][29] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port is 1830 CNY/ton, an increase of 30 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][31] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for thermal coal mines is 91.2%, up 0.1 percentage points week-on-week, while for coking coal it is 86.28%, up 2.5 percentage points [4][12] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces increased by 12.3 thousand tons/day (+3.8%), while consumption in coastal provinces decreased by 8.0 thousand tons/day (-4.26%) [4][12] Inventory Situation - Coal inventory in coastal provinces increased by 464 thousand tons week-on-week, while inland provinces saw an increase of 2.517 million tons [4][12] Company Performance - The coal sector's performance is highlighted by companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, which are noted for their stable operations and strong earnings [13][14]

Group 1 - The coal stocks have collectively retreated after a period of continuous increase, with notable declines in companies such as China Coal Energy, which fell over 4%, and Yanzhou Coal Mining, which dropped 3% [1] - Despite a year-on-year decline in coal prices expected until the third quarter of 2025, there has been a significant quarter-on-quarter recovery in coal prices and improved performance for coal companies in the third quarter [1] - An increasing number of financial institutions, investment funds, and insurance companies are incorporating Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) factors into their investment decisions, leading to restrictions or withdrawals from coal-related projects, resulting in higher financing costs for coal companies [1] Group 2 - Short-term factors such as economic recovery, extreme weather, and geopolitical issues may create trading opportunities due to tight coal supply and demand, although high volatility should be noted [1] - The latest price movements of various coal companies indicate a downward trend, with specific declines such as Feishang Non-Ferrous Coal down 8.58% and China Shenhua down 2.76% [1]

Group 1 - Hong Kong coal stocks experienced significant declines, with China Coal Energy (01898.HK) dropping by 3.32% to HKD 11.65 [2] - Yanzhou Coal Mining (01171.HK) fell by 2.81%, trading at HKD 11.43 [2] - China Shenhua Energy (01088.HK) decreased by 2.39%, with a price of HKD 42.42 [2] - Yancoal Australia (03668.HK) saw a decline of 1.71%, priced at HKD 28.8 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Coal stocks are experiencing significant declines, with major companies like China Coal Energy, Yanzhou Coal Mining, and China Shenhua Energy reporting drops in their stock prices amid a backdrop of falling coal prices and mixed quarterly performance [1] Company Performance - China Coal Energy reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.86 billion yuan in Q3, a year-on-year decrease of 21.9%, but the decline is less severe compared to a 31.5% drop in the first half of the year [1] - China Shenhua Energy's net profit for Q3 was 14.411 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 6.2% [1] Market Trends - Coal prices are expected to continue to decline year-on-year through the first three quarters of 2025, although there has been a noticeable recovery in Q3 compared to previous quarters [1] - The current coal prices are nearing short-term peaks, with expectations of a slight decline as winter approaches, although the overall decline space is limited [1] - The fundamental shift in the supply-demand dynamics of the coal industry since May is identified as the core reason for the recent price increases, indicating a long-term upward trend in coal prices [1]