Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 40.00, implying a 21.6% upside potential [1][4][47] Core Views - Yancoal Australia is a Chinese state-owned coal mining company with operations in Australia, producing both thermal coal for power generation and metallurgical coal for the steel industry [1] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the rebound in demand, particularly from China, as trade cooperation between China and Australia strengthens [1][16] - Thermal coal prices are expected to remain supported due to ongoing geopolitical risks, increasing thermal power generation in China, and stable demand from other Asian regions [1][22] - Metallurgical coal prices are expected to follow the recovery in the steel market, supported by recent government measures to stabilize the real estate sector in China [2][27] - The company is expected to see a rebound in earnings by FY26, driven by higher thermal and metallurgical coal prices and increased thermal coal sales [3][37] Financial Performance and Forecasts - FY24 revenue is expected to decline by 12.6% to AUD 6.8 billion due to lower coal prices, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to drop by 28.6% to AUD 1.3 billion [3][37] - FY25 net profit is forecasted to decline by 6.1% to AUD 1.2 billion, but a rebound of 5.4% is expected in FY26 to AUD 1.3 billion, driven by higher coal prices and increased sales [3][37] - Thermal coal sales are expected to grow at a CAGR of 6.8% from FY23 to FY26, reaching 34.6 million tons, while metallurgical coal sales are expected to recover slightly in FY25 and FY26 [31][34] - The company's unit cash operating cost (excluding royalties) is expected to increase from AUD 92/ton in FY24 to AUD 98/ton in FY26 [38] Sensitivity Analysis - A 1.0% change in thermal coal prices in FY24 would result in a 2.44% change in net profit, while a 1.0% change in metallurgical coal prices would result in a 0.62% change [3][40] - In FY25, a 1.0% change in thermal coal prices would impact net profit by 2.73%, and a 1.0% change in metallurgical coal prices would impact net profit by 0.65% [41] - For FY26, a 1.0% change in thermal coal prices would impact net profit by 2.66%, and a 1.0% change in metallurgical coal prices would impact net profit by 0.62% [41] Dividend Policy - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio, with FY22-23 payout ratios of 45.2% and 50.5%, respectively [42] - The dividend payout ratio is expected to remain at 49.8% for FY24-26 [42][43] Valuation and Peer Comparison - The company's FY25 P/E ratio of 7.0x is below the peer average of 7.1x, suggesting potential for higher valuation given the expected earnings rebound and increased export opportunities to China [47] - The target price of HKD 40.00 implies an 8.5x FY25 P/E ratio and a 21.6% upside potential [1][47] Operational Highlights - Yancoal Australia operates 7 mines in Australia, with a total annual production capacity of 70 million tons of raw coal and 55 million tons of saleable coal [17] - Thermal coal accounts for 77.0% of the company's coal sales revenue in 1H24, while metallurgical coal contributes 21.4% [17] - China is the largest revenue contributor, accounting for 33.2% of coal sales revenue in 1H24, followed by Japan (23.4%), Taiwan (16.7%), and South Korea (15.1%) [17][20]

18 Oct 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--- ...

2024 年 10 月 22 日 兖煤澳大利亚（3668.HK） 三季度产量进度良好，维持全年指引 事件：公司发布 2024 年三季度经营情况，三季度权益煤炭产量 10.2 百万吨，同比上升 10%，环比上升 24%。平均煤炭实现价格为 170 澳元/吨，同比下降 14%，环比下降 6%。 三季度公司产量恢复情况良好，四季度有望延续三季度的产量情况。现金营运成本保持 89-97 澳元/吨的指引未变。第三季度公司现金余额增加 4.3 亿澳元。公司的经营稳健， 我们略微上调公司的产量预期。基于公司优质的低成本矿山资产和运营管理能力，给予 2025 年 P/E 为 7x，维持"买入"评级，目标价 38.2 港元。 报告摘要 Q3 产量恢复强劲，预计 Q4 延续态势。公司 Q3 实现权益产量 10.2 百万吨，权益销量 10.4 百万吨（YOY+10%, HOH +24%），当中动力煤 9 百万吨，冶金煤 1.4 百万吨。今 年 1-9 月，商品煤权益总产量 27.2 百万吨，同比增长 15%。上半年产量仍受到工作面 接续和雨水的影响，重点矿山产量有所受影响，而 Q3 产量进一步恢复，预计 Q4 可以 维持 Q3 的 ...

新南威爾士州辛格爾頓沃克山礦 凝心聚力 共創佳績 慶祝在澳20載 2024中期報告 日 °3870.131 S °0694.28 PT 19 and Hijman 新南威爾士州獵人谷艾詩頓礦 1. 業績公佈 2. 每股收益 2024年 6月30日 2023年 6月30日 3. 每股證券的有形資產淨值 2024年 6月30日 2023年 6月30日 澳元 澳元 變動百分比 每股有形資產淨值 6.29 6.01 5 % 4. 利潤分配 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|-----------------------------|------------| | | | 2024 年 6 月 30 日 百萬澳元 | 2023 年 6 月 30 日 百萬澳元 | 變動百分比 | | | 一般經營業務收入 | | 3,138 3,976 (21%) | | | | 所得稅前利潤 （ 扣除非經常性項目前 ） | | 5 ...

20 Aug 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------|------------|------------------------------- ...

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 产量继续恢复，销价影响或近尾声 兖煤澳大利亚(3668) [Table_Industry] 煤炭 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.08.20 ——2024 年中报点评 [table_Authors] 黄涛(分析师) 021-38674879 huangtao@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880515090001 本报告导读： 公司 2024H1 产量继续恢复，但销售价格同比下降影响利润发挥。展望 24H2，公司 销量恢复有望加速，同时价格同比基数影响有望消退。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 维持"增持"评级。公司公告 2024 年中报，总营收 31.38 亿澳元， 同比减少 21.08%；股东应占利润 4.2 亿澳元，同比减少 56.83%，低 于市场预期。考虑到公司 H1 产量恢复及售价不及预期，我们下调 2024-2026 年净利润预测至 12.85、15.70 ...

澳洲證券交易所、香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性或完 整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示概不就因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失 承擔任何責任。 Yancoal Australia Ltd ACN 111 859 119 兗煤澳大利亞有限公司* （於澳大利亞維多利亞州註冊成立的有限公司） （香港股份代號: 3668） （ 澳洲股份代號: YAL） 截至 2024 年 6 月 30 日止半年度 之半年業績公告 兗煤澳大利亞有限公司（「本公司」）董事會（「董事會」）欣然公佈本公司及其附屬公司截至 2024 年 6 月 30 日止半年度之半年業績。該半年業績已由本公司審計與風險管理委員會審閱，其認 為有關業績的編製符合適用會計準則及規定，並已作出充足披露。 本公告列載本公司截至 2024 年 6 月 30 日止半年度的半年財務報告全文，符合香港聯合交易所有限 公司證券上市規則（「上市規則」）中有關中期業績公告的披露要求。 本公告於香港聯合交易所有限公司的網站（「披露易網站」）www.hkexnews.hk 及本公司的網 站 www.yan ...

2024 年 7 月 22 日 兖煤澳大利亚(3668.HK) 二季度符合预期 事件:公司发布二季度运营报告,二季度平均煤炭价格为 181 澳元/吨,环比基本持 平。其中动力煤平均销售价格 163 澳元/吨,环比上涨 3%;冶金煤平均销售价格 318 澳元/吨,环比下降 5%。实现煤炭销量 8.6 百万吨,环比增加 3%。公司上半年实现 煤炭销售价格 180 澳元/吨,同比下降 35%;实现煤炭销量 16.9 百万吨,同比增长 18%。总体上半年公司经营表现较为稳健,生产经营按照预期进行。基于公司低成 本煤矿良好的利润率水平、稳健的财务状况和吸引人的分红政策,给予 25 年 P/E 倍数 7x,目标价 43.2 元,维持买入评级。 报告摘要 二季度商品煤权益产量同环比小幅下降,销量环比小幅增长,库存水平恢复正常。 公司 2024 年第二季度商品煤权益产量为 8.2 百万吨,同比小幅下降 4%,环比小幅 下降 7%,主要是天气影响降雨较多以及开采计划的调整影响生产营运。预计下半年 亨特谷和莫拉本矿山产量会继续恢复。公司一季度受到火车铁路脱轨影响库存偏高, 二季度库存水平恢复正常。全年产量指引维持 3500-39 ...

19 Jul 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) 2Q24 sales volume +1%; Full-year target still achievable Yancoal's (YAL) 2Q24 operating data came in slightly below our expectation, with only 1% YoY increase in attributable sales volume due to adverse weather conditions and operational factors such as longwall move and wash plant throughput rates. Blended ASP dropped 20% YoY in 2Q24 but is in line with the market trend and our expectation. We estima ...

8 Jul 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) Higher coal price assumptions after the fire incident at Grosvenor coal mine | | | | | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------|---- ...