华新水泥首次覆盖报告：骨料和海外双极驱动，一体化布局领跑行业

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company's transformation strategy is showing results, with dual drivers from overseas expansion and aggregate business supporting performance through cycles [3][6] - Despite the downturn in the cement industry, the company maintains a cost-first approach, achieving a reduction in cement clinker costs and sustaining a gross margin above industry levels [3][4] - The company has significantly expanded its overseas operations, with a notable increase in production capacity and revenue contribution from international markets [4][6] - The aggregate business has become a major profit source, with high margins and rapid growth in production capacity [4][6] - The company is leading in green initiatives, focusing on energy saving and carbon reduction strategies [4][6] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 1907, the company has evolved from a local cement factory to a global building materials group, recognized as a top brand in China [11] - The company has a strong foreign investment background, with Holcim as the largest shareholder, aiding its international expansion [13][16] Cement Business - The company focuses on cost management in its domestic cement operations, maintaining a competitive edge in production capacity [31][33] - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 33.757 billion yuan, marking a 10.79% year-on-year increase, with net profit reaching 2.762 billion yuan, a 2.34% increase [23][24] Non-Cement Business - The aggregate segment has seen substantial growth, with production capacity reaching 277 million tons in 2023, making it a key profit contributor [4][26] - The concrete business has also expanded significantly, with production capacity increasing by 77.45% year-on-year [4][26] Financial Forecast and Investment Suggestions - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 34.933 billion, 37.967 billion, and 41.551 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding net profits of 2.913 billion, 3.192 billion, and 3.601 billion yuan [6][7] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 9.57, 8.73, and 7.74 for the years 2024 to 2026, indicating potential for investment [6][7]