SCTE(600674) 华源证券·2024-08-20 13:09Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.302 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.74%, which is in line with expectations [3] - The water inflow at the Yalong River hydropower station significantly improved in the second quarter, leading to a 9.38% year-on-year increase in electricity generation for the first half of 2024, with a remarkable 37.24% increase in the second quarter [3] - Despite a decrease in average on-grid electricity prices due to eased supply-demand tensions, the average price remains higher than in the same period of 2022 [3] - Financial expenses decreased significantly, with a reduction of approximately 100 million yuan year-on-year in the first half of 2024, contributing to the growth in net profit [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of 1.482 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected revenue of 1.482 billion yuan for 2024, indicating a year-on-year growth rate of 4.4% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 5.111 billion yuan in 2024, 5.390 billion yuan in 2025, and 5.615 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding PE ratios of 18, 17, and 16 times respectively [4][5] - The financial expenses for the first half of 2024 were 216 million yuan, down from 314 million yuan in the same period of 2023, marking the largest decrease in recent years [3] Market Dynamics - The supply-demand situation in Sichuan's electricity market remains tight, with a long-term trend of rising electricity prices expected due to limited new hydropower capacity [3] - The unique revenue drivers for hydropower companies, which are largely independent of macroeconomic conditions, suggest a revaluation of water power assets in the market [4] Investment Outlook - The company and the entire hydropower sector are expected to have long-term allocation value due to their low covariance characteristics with macroeconomic factors, which enhances their risk resilience [4]