SHBT(SH:603009) CAITONG SECURITIES·2024-08-20 14:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (First Time)" [1] Core Views - The company has established a solid leadership position in the automotive parts industry, with a market share of 50% in steering gear racks and over 45% in shock absorber piston rods. The market for core systems of line-controlled chassis in domestic passenger cars is expected to reach 65 billion yuan by 2026, with a CAGR of 35.4% from 2022 to 2026 [2][60] - The lightweight market presents significant growth potential, with the company’s aluminum forging technology leading in the lightweighting of new energy vehicles. The domestic automotive aluminum market is projected to reach 6.96 million tons by 2025, with a market size of 278.4 billion yuan [2][58] - The planetary roller screw may open a second growth curve for the company, as it is a core component for humanoid robots, with high processing difficulty and low domestic production rates [2] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 2.298 billion yuan in 2024, with net profits of 61 million yuan, corresponding to PEG ratios of 4.7, 0.6, and 0.7 for 2024-2026 [2] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has been a leader in the automotive parts market for over 20 years, with a diverse product matrix covering chassis parts, air conditioning compressors, aluminum lightweighting, and high-precision components [42] - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with the main shareholder holding 29.8% of the shares, and a management team with extensive industry experience [47][49] 2. Market Expansion - The lightweighting trend is crucial for energy conservation and emission reduction in vehicles, with aluminum being a key material. The market for automotive lightweighting in China was approximately 361.87 billion yuan in 2022, with aluminum accounting for 76.8% [56] - The automotive chassis parts market is characterized by high entry barriers and a complex supply chain, with the company positioned to benefit from the rise of line-controlled chassis systems [60] 3. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue has shown steady growth, with significant increases in both revenue and net profit in the first quarter of 2024, driven by the robust development of new energy vehicles and a recovery in the commercial vehicle market [50][51] - The company’s revenue from chassis parts and air conditioning compressors accounted for over 80% of total revenue in 2023, with the lightweighting business showing a growth rate of 182.12% [51][53] 4. Investment Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 2.298 billion yuan, 2.640 billion yuan, and 2.966 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with net profits of 61 million yuan, 115 million yuan, and 171 million yuan respectively [2][4]