Hangcha (603298) 东吴证券·2024-08-20 23:30Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Hangcha Group (603298) [1] Core Views - Hangcha Group's H1 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 29% YoY, driven by structural optimization and improved profitability [1] - The company's Q2 2024 net profit grew by 28% YoY, with overseas and lithium-ion product expansion continuing to deliver results [2] - The company's gross margin and net margin improved both YoY and QoQ in H1 2024, benefiting from product mix optimization [2] - The short-to-medium-term growth logic of lithium-ion and globalization remains intact, with domestic and overseas markets showing potential for further lithium-ion penetration [2] Financial Performance - H1 2024 revenue reached 8.55 billion yuan, up 3.7% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 1.01 billion yuan, up 29.3% YoY [2] - Q2 2024 revenue was 4.38 billion yuan, up 1.5% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 630 million yuan, up 28.2% YoY [2] - H1 2024 gross margin was 21.4%, up 2.3 percentage points YoY, and net margin was 12.5%, up 2.5 percentage points YoY [2] - Q2 2024 gross margin was 22.2%, up 2.3 percentage points YoY and 1.6 percentage points QoQ, while net margin was 15.3%, up 3.0 percentage points YoY and 5.6 percentage points QoQ [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - 2024E revenue is projected at 19.28 billion yuan, up 18.48% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 2.05 billion yuan, up 19.29% YoY [2] - 2025E revenue is forecasted at 22.73 billion yuan, up 17.87% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 2.43 billion yuan, up 18.61% YoY [2] - 2026E revenue is expected to reach 27.22 billion yuan, up 19.76% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 2.93 billion yuan, up 20.32% YoY [2] - The 2024E P/E ratio is 11.0x, decreasing to 9.3x in 2025E and 7.7x in 2026E [2] Market and Industry Insights - Overseas markets show signs of recovery, with leading companies like Kion and Toyota reporting Q2 2024 new order growth of 8% and 10% QoQ, respectively [2] - Domestic market benefits from environmental policies and equipment renewal initiatives, with the electric penetration rate of counterbalanced forklifts reaching 32% in H1 2024, up 7 percentage points YoY [2] - In 2023, the domestic forklift market's electric penetration rate was 29%, lower than the overseas rate of 44%, with lithium-ion penetration rates at 20% domestically and 13% overseas [2] - The global forklift market in 2023 was approximately 130 billion yuan, with the top two Chinese players holding only 5% market share each, indicating significant growth potential [2] Financial Structure and Ratios - The company's total assets are projected to grow from 13.89 billion yuan in 2023A to 23.71 billion yuan in 2026E [8] - Net profit margin is expected to remain stable, with 2024E at 10.64%, 2025E at 10.71%, and 2026E at 10.76% [8] - ROE (diluted) is forecasted at 19.23% in 2024E, 18.57% in 2025E, and 18.26% in 2026E [9] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio is expected to decline from 33.42% in 2023A to 26.99% in 2026E [9]