CSICPCL(SH:600482) Guotou Securities·2024-08-20 23:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy - A" with a target price of 23.60 CNY, while the current stock price is 21.98 CNY [4]. Core Views - The global shipbuilding industry is benefiting from the resonance of long, medium, and short cycles, indicating an upward trend that may last longer than the previous cycle [1][3]. - The shipbuilding industry chain has gradually shifted from Japan and South Korea to China, with the domestic shipbuilding sector experiencing a trend of rising volume and price [1][3]. - The power system is a crucial component of ships, and the price-cost gap is widening, suggesting that the company's profitability is expected to improve further [1][9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is the only listed platform for marine power under China Shipbuilding Group and is a core force in China's ship power system research and production [2][15]. - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 45.103 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 17.77%, and a net profit of 779 million CNY, up 134.30% year-on-year [2][25]. Market Dynamics - The global shipbuilding industry is in a new upward cycle, with the current demand being strong and the production capacity having decreased compared to the last cycle [3][8]. - The shipbuilding market is currently experiencing a mismatch between supply and demand, leading to a continuous trend of rising volume and price [8][10]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue from 2019 to 2023 showed a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.02%, while net profit had a CAGR of -5.83% [24][25]. - The company expects revenues of 54.02 billion CNY, 64.02 billion CNY, and 74.88 billion CNY for 2024 to 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.8%, 18.5%, and 17.0% respectively [10][11]. Business Segments - The main business segment, diesel engine power, achieved revenue of 17.215 billion CNY in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 34.63% [27]. - The company has diversified its operations across various sectors, including chemical power, marine platforms, and transmission equipment, with significant contributions from each segment [19][21][22]. Industry Outlook - The shipbuilding industry is expected to continue benefiting from the current cycle, with orders likely to maintain a trend of rising volume and price [10][30]. - The company is positioned to enhance its market share and profitability due to the ongoing supply-demand mismatch and the widening price-cost gap [10][30].