平煤股份：Q3产量预期继续增长，业绩环比改善可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pingmei Shenhua Coal Industry Co., Ltd. (601666.SH), expecting a relative increase of over 15% in the stock price within the next 6 to 12 months [5]. Core Views - The report highlights that Q3 production is expected to continue growing, with performance improvement anticipated on a quarter-over-quarter basis. The company achieved a revenue of 16.254 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.78%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 37.66% year-on-year [1][3]. - The report notes that the coal production for the first half of 2024 was 14.21 million tons, a decrease of 7.56% year-on-year, and the sales volume of commercial coal was 13.49 million tons, down 13.20% year-on-year. However, Q2 saw a slight increase in production compared to Q1, indicating a potential recovery [1][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company reported operating income of 16.254 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.393 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decrease compared to the previous year [1]. - The report projects revenues for 2024 to be 30.644 billion yuan, with net profits expected to be 2.822 billion yuan, indicating a continued decline in profitability [3]. Production and Sales - Q2 2024 saw coal production of 7.58 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.16% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.35%. However, the sales volume of commercial coal decreased by 13.56% year-on-year [1]. - The average price of commercial coal in Q2 was 1,017 yuan per ton, showing a year-on-year increase of 9.03% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 11.98% [1]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that with the recovery of production at the Shier Mine, Q3 production is expected to maintain a growth trajectory. Additionally, the long-term contract prices for premium coking coal are expected to stabilize, which may lead to improved profitability in Q3 [1][3].