BABA(09988) 长城证券·2024-08-21 03:10Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [9][22]. Core Insights - The company's core domestic e-commerce business is approaching a take rate inflection point, with expectations that the gap between CMR revenue and GMV growth will gradually narrow. Operational efficiency improvements are anticipated to lead multiple business segments to achieve breakeven and contribute profits over time [1]. - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1.03 trillion, 1.14 trillion, and 1.25 trillion yuan for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 respectively, with net profits of 933.68 billion, 1,115.26 billion, and 1,340.20 billion yuan, and EPS of 4.58, 5.47, and 6.58 yuan respectively [1]. Financial Summary - For FY2025, the company is expected to generate operating revenue of 1,033.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.80%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 93.368 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.70% [9][10]. - The company’s operating cash flow is expected to improve from 126.058 billion yuan in FY2025 to 167.697 billion yuan in FY2027, indicating a positive trend in cash generation [4]. - The report highlights a significant increase in the adjusted EBITA for the cloud intelligence group, which is expected to reach 23.37 billion yuan in FY25Q1, a year-on-year increase of 155% [11]. Key Financial Ratios - The report indicates a projected ROE of 10.66% for FY2027, with a net profit margin expected to reach 10.24% [3][5]. - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decline from 22.80 in FY2026 to 12.38 in FY2027, suggesting an improving valuation over time [9][10].