证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2025 年 05 月 21 日 腾讯控股（00700.HK） 游戏及广告收入超预期，关注后续 AI 投入及进展 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 买入（维持评级） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 609,015 | 660,257 | 724,251 | 788,778 | 852,067 | 股票信息 | | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 9.82 | 8.41 | 9.69 | 8.91 | 8.02 | | | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 115,216 | 194,073 | 225,457 | 243,510 | 262,307 | 行业 | 传媒 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | -38.79 | 68.44 | 16.17 | 8.01 | 7.72 | 2025 年 5 月 20 日收盘价（港元） | 517.00 | | ROE（%） | 14.25 | 19.93 | 19.33 | 17 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [4] Core Views - Alibaba's e-commerce business remains robust, with AI driving accelerated growth in cloud revenue [1] - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, having repurchased $11.9 billion in shares and approved a total dividend of $4.6 billion for FY2025 [1] - The report forecasts revenue growth for FY2025 to FY2027, estimating revenues of CNY 1.10 trillion, CNY 1.19 trillion, and CNY 1.28 trillion respectively, with adjusted net profits of CNY 160.1 billion, CNY 183.2 billion, and CNY 200.9 billion [3] Financial Performance Summary - For FY2024A, Alibaba's revenue is projected at CNY 941.17 billion, with a year-over-year growth rate of 8.34% [8] - The adjusted net profit for FY2024A is expected to be CNY 79.74 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 9.97% [8] - The report indicates a steady increase in EPS, projected to reach CNY 9.93 by FY2028E [8] - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 26.72 in FY2024A to 11.29 in FY2028E, indicating improved valuation over time [8] E-commerce Business Insights - The e-commerce segment, specifically Taotian Group, achieved revenue of CNY 710.77 billion in FY25Q4, a 12% increase year-over-year, exceeding market expectations [2] - The growth is attributed to increased software service fees and enhanced marketing efficiency for small and medium-sized businesses [2] - The report anticipates continued growth in the Take Rate due to improved advertising tool penetration and AI applications enhancing user experience [2] Cloud Business Insights - Cloud revenue for FY25Q4 grew by 18% year-over-year to CNY 301.27 billion, with AI-related product revenue maintaining triple-digit growth for seven consecutive quarters [3] - The report highlights a shift in the customer base from large enterprises to small and medium-sized businesses, with significant investments in AI continuing [3] - Despite increased investments leading to a slight decline in adjusted EBITA margin, the outlook for cloud revenue growth remains positive [3]

中美关税缓和，华为与优必选科技签署全面合作协议 行业要闻：中美关税缓和。据商务部消息，美方承诺取消根据 2025 年 4 月 8 日第 14259 号行政令和 2025 年 4 月 9 日第 14266 号行政令对中国商品加征 的共计 91%关税，修改 2025 年 4 月 2 日第 14257 号行政令对中国商品加征 的 34%对等关税，其中 24%的关税暂停加征 90 天，保留剩余 10%关税。相 应地，中方取消对美国商品加征的共计 91%的反制关税；针对美对等关税的 34%反制关税，相应暂停其中 24%的关税 90 天，剩余 10%关税予以保留。 第四届长沙国际工程机械展览会闭幕。5 月 15-18 日，第四届长沙国际工程 机械展览会在长沙举行。今年，1806 家中外工程机械企业参展，规模创历史 新高，较上一届增长了 20%。展会期间还举办了多场国际商务采购对接活动， 吸引了 20 多个国家的 760 家国际采购商参与。品牌方面，不仅有卡特彼勒、 日立建机、沃尔沃等连续多届参展的行业巨头再次闪耀登场；更有宝马格、 曼尼通、欧历胜、斯凯杰科这 4 家全球工程机械 50 强品牌首次加入。本次展 会举办新品发 ...

证券研究报告| 公司动态点评 2025 年 05 月 20 日 合盛硅业（603260.SH） 公司盈利能力承压，静待行业周期性复苏及公司新产能扩张-合盛硅 业 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 26,584 | 26,692 | 27,888 | 31,217 | 33,447 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 12.4 | 0.4 | 4.5 | 11.9 | 7.1 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 2,623 | 1,740 | 1,785 | 2,741 | 3,371 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | -49.1 | -33.6 | 2.6 | 53.5 | 23.0 | | ROE（%） | 8.0 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 7.6 | 8.7 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 2.22 | 1.47 | 1.51 | 2.32 | 2.85 | | P/E（倍） | 22.9 | 3 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2025 年 05 月 20 日 金诚信（603979.SH） 矿山服务业绩稳定，资源开发销量上涨，"双轮驱动"成效显著- 金诚信 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 7,399 | 9,942 | 12,218 | 13,549 | 15,664 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 38.2 | 34.4 | 22.9 | 10.9 | 15.6 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,031 | 1,584 | 2,187 | 2,556 | 2,785 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 68.7 | 53.6 | 38.1 | 16.9 | 9.0 | | ROE（%） | 14.2 | 17.3 | 19.8 | 19.0 | 17.3 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 1.65 | 2.54 | 3.51 | 4.10 | 4.46 | | P/E（倍） | 22. ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 2025 年 05 月 19 日 汽车 华为与优必选全面合作具身智能，5 月前两周乘用车零售同比+12% | 1 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票 | 股票 | 投资 | EPS （元） | | PE | | | 代码 | 名称 | 评级 | 2025E | 2026E | 2025E | 2026E | | 000625.SZ | 长安汽车 | 增持 | 1.27 | 1.61 | 9.74 | 7.68 | | 002284.SZ | 亚太股份 | 买入 | 0.47 | 0.62 | 26.87 | 20.37 | | 002906.SZ | 华阳集团 | 增持 | 1.67 | 2.23 | 19.35 | 14.49 | | 09660.HK 地平线机器人-W | | 买入 | 1.56 | 2.0 | 4.75 | 3.71 | | 301106.SZ | 骏成科技 | 增持 | 1.94 | 2.63 | 14.78 | 10.9 | | 301488.SZ | 豪恩汽电 | ...

医药 本周医药板块上涨 1.27%，百济 BTK PROTAC 启动头对头 3 期临 床 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 2025 年 05 月 19 日 | 股票 | 股票 | 投资 | EPS （元） | | PE | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 名称 | 评级 | 2025E | 2026E | 2025E | 2026E | | 002755.SZ | 奥赛康 | 买入 | 0.2 | 0.28 | 87.7 | 62.64 | | 01952.HK | 云顶新耀 | 买入 | -0.94 | 0.58 | - | - | | 600079.SH | 人福医药 | 增持 | 1.59 | 1.86 | 12.83 | 10.97 | | 688192.SH | 迪哲医药 | 增持 | -1.33 | -0.08 | - | - | | 688315.SH | 诺禾致源 | 买入 | 0.53 | 0.62 | 26.51 | 22.66 | | 688321.SH | 微芯生物 | 增持 | 0.05 | 0.23 | 349. ...

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2025 年 05 月 19 日 资料来源：公司财报，长城证券产业金融研究院 事件：公司发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报，2024 年公司实现营收 4.32 亿元，同比增长 20.04%；实现归母净利润 0.33 亿元，同比增长 2.51%；实 现扣非净利润 0.24 亿元，同比下降 10.21%。2025 年 Q1 公司实现营收 1.26 亿元，同比增长 54.13%，环比增长 5.23%；实现归母净利润 0.08 亿元，同 比增长 0.71%，环比下降 21.60%；实现扣非净利润 0.07 亿元，同比增长 84.39%，环比下降 10.58%。 营收快速增长，研发投入加大：2024 年公司综合营收实现 20.04%的增长， 主要得益于先进封装领域的良好表现，其中电镀液及配套试剂同比增长 9.67%，光刻胶及配套试剂同比增长 37.68%。然而，净利润增长幅度小于营 收增长幅度，主要原因是公司持续加大研发投入，研发费用同比增长 40.42%， 占营业收入的比例达到 10.62%。整体来看，公司在保持营收增长的同时， 通过加大研发投入为未来的技术突破和市场拓展奠定 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [5][22]. Core Views - The agricultural chemical industry is currently at a low point, and the company's performance is under short-term pressure. However, the company is expected to gradually strengthen its advantages in the industrial chain [1][10]. - The company is focusing on continuous investment in project construction, which is anticipated to enhance its market competitiveness [14][11]. - The potential acquisition of Shandong Huimeng is expected to further expand the company's industrial chain, enhancing overall competitiveness [12][14]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company's revenue is projected to be 73.11 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.87% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.15 billion yuan, down 64.34% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company's revenue for 2025 is estimated to recover slightly to 74.67 billion yuan, with a net profit of 4.04 billion yuan, reflecting an 87.4% year-on-year increase [13][14]. - The company's cash flow from operating activities for 2024 is expected to be 313 million yuan, a decline of 66.70% year-on-year [4][15]. Sales and Market Performance - In 2024, the company's sales volume for agricultural raw materials is expected to be 59,300 tons, an increase of 7.72% year-on-year, while the sales volume for agricultural formulations is projected to be 70,000 tons, up 16.14% year-on-year [3][2]. - Despite the increase in sales volume, the company's revenue and profit are under pressure due to declining prices for both raw materials and formulations [3][2]. Cost and Expense Analysis - The company's selling expenses are expected to rise by 16.79% year-on-year, with a selling expense ratio of 1.88% [3]. - Management expenses are projected to decrease by 19.45% year-on-year, while financial expenses are expected to increase significantly by 105.28% [3][4]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see revenue growth of 11.1% in 2026 and 10.4% in 2027, with net profit growth of 26.4% and 26.8% respectively [14][13]. - The report suggests that the agricultural chemical industry is likely to recover as market inventory is digested and outdated production capacity is eliminated, benefiting leading companies with abundant registration resources [10][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [4][18]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing stable growth in both revenue and profit, with a projected revenue of 1.288 billion yuan in 2024, representing an 18.91% year-over-year increase, and a net profit of 96 million yuan, reflecting a 10.36% year-over-year growth [1][2]. - The company is benefiting from a recovery in downstream market demand, particularly in traditional home appliances and emerging markets such as new energy vehicles, wind power, and photovoltaics, which are driving industry growth [3][9]. - The company is actively pursuing product transformation and internal management upgrades, enhancing its technological innovation and new product development capabilities [8][9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 1.083 billion yuan in 2023 to 2.040 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14.7% [1]. - The net profit is expected to increase from 87 million yuan in 2023 to 163 million yuan in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 24.5% in 2025 [1][9]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to improve from 4.7% in 2023 to 7.1% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [1]. Market and Industry Context - The global economy is undergoing cyclical adjustments, with geopolitical risks and international trade challenges persisting, yet the company is positioned to capitalize on structural growth opportunities in the energy transition and power system reform [3]. - The domestic film capacitor industry is maturing, with increasing competition; however, the company is leveraging its procurement cost advantages and regional support to navigate these challenges [3].