中国建筑：龙头央企资产质量与成长性超预期

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for China State Construction Engineering Corporation (CSCEC) [4] Core Views - The market perceives risks associated with CSCEC's real estate inventory and asset quality, but the report argues that the company's asset quality is solid and that it can optimize its business structure for long-term growth [2][3] - The report forecasts EPS growth of 7% in 2024 and 5% in 2025 and 2026, with target price set at 7.76 RMB, corresponding to a PE of 5.5 times for 2024 [3][4] Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendation - Maintain "Overweight" rating for CSCEC, citing high cost-performance ratio at current historical valuation levels [15] - EPS forecast for 2024-2026 is 1.40/1.47/1.54 RMB, with growth rates of 7%/5%/5% respectively [3][15] - Revenue and gross profit breakdown shows a balanced structure with housing construction, infrastructure, and real estate each contributing 45%, 25%, and 25% respectively [15] 2. Real Estate Business Strength - The report highlights strong product capability and land acquisition ability in the real estate sector, with controllable impairment risks for inventory assets [12] - Optimized real estate policies in major cities are expected to stabilize the market [12] - New land reserves are primarily located in first- and second-tier cities, with good sales performance for completed projects [12][15] 3. Order Growth in Construction and Infrastructure - The construction business is undergoing significant transformation, with a notable increase in high-end construction projects [12] - New signed orders in infrastructure increased by 35% in the first half of 2024, focusing on energy engineering and new urbanization [12][15] - The report emphasizes the importance of managing investment projects to mitigate impairment risks [12] 4. Market Position and Dividend Yield - CSCEC is recognized as the largest investment and construction group globally, with a current dividend yield of 4.81%, the highest among state-owned construction enterprises [12][15] - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio over the past four years, exceeding 20% [12][15] - Institutional holdings are at a historical high of 21.6%, indicating strong market confidence [12][15]