PDH(SH:600048) Huachuang Securities·2024-08-21 07:08Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 13 yuan, compared to the current price of 8.18 yuan, indicating an expected upside of approximately 59% [2][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of approximately 139.2 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.66%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was about 7.4 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 39.29% compared to the previous year [2]. - The decline in profit is attributed to the burden of land reserves and a decrease in gross margin, which fell by 5 percentage points to 16% in the first half of 2024 due to market downturns and price pressures [2]. - The company has a strong financing advantage, with a cash balance of 146.4 billion yuan at the end of June 2024, representing over 10% of total assets, and a cash recovery rate of 84.6% [2]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was 346.9 billion yuan, with a projected decrease to 329.5 billion yuan in 2024, followed by a slight recovery in subsequent years [4]. - The net profit for 2023 was 12.1 billion yuan, with expectations of a minor increase to 12.2 billion yuan in 2024, and further growth anticipated in the following years [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.02 yuan in 2024, increasing to 1.24 yuan by 2026, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12.5 for 2024 [4][3]. Land Acquisition and Sales Performance - The company experienced a 17% year-on-year decline in equity sales, with only 12 land parcels acquired in the first half of 2024, totaling a land price of 12.6 billion yuan [2]. - The total signed area for the first half of 2024 was 9.54 million square meters, down 31.01% year-on-year, with a signed sales amount of 173.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 26.81% [2]. Cash Flow and Financing - The company has effectively utilized low-interest financing opportunities, reducing the average cost of new financing by 21 basis points to 2.93% [2]. - The total interest-bearing debt as of June 2024 was 373.5 billion yuan, with a comprehensive cost of 3.31%, down 25 basis points from the beginning of the year [2].