Vipshop(VIPS) 国信证券·2024-08-21 07:10Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company's revenue for the quarter was 26.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%, primarily due to weak demand and increased competition [3] - Product revenue was 25.1 billion yuan, down 4.1% year-on-year, with wearables showing low single-digit growth and standard products declining due to competition [3] - Other revenue increased by 5% year-on-year to 1.8 billion yuan, driven by the growth of Shan Shan Outlet stores [3] - For Q3 2024, management expects revenue growth to be in the range of -10% to -5% due to continued weak demand and competitive pressures [3] Operational Data - GMV for the quarter remained flat at 50.6 billion yuan, with the gap between GMV and revenue growth narrowing [4] - Active buyers decreased by 3% year-on-year to 44.3 million, with the number of purchases per user declining in the low single digits and average order value increasing [4] - SuperVIP members grew by 11% year-on-year to 7.4 million, accounting for 47% of the company's online transaction value [4] Profitability - Non-GAAP net profit for the quarter was 2.2 billion yuan, down 10% year-on-year, with the net profit margin decreasing from 8.6% to 8.1% due to foreign exchange losses, partially offset by adjusted operating profit growth [4] - Adjusted operating profit increased by 12% year-on-year, with an adjusted operating profit margin of 9.5%, driven by continuous improvement in gross margin [4] Shareholder Returns - The company repurchased 330 million remaining in the current repurchase plan, valid until March 31, 2025 [6] - A new 14-15, representing a 37%/38% reduction, with an upside potential of 20%-30% [8] Financial Metrics - Revenue for 2022-2026E is projected at 103152/112856/108959/112614/119537 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -11.9%/9.4%/-3.5%/3.4%/6.1% [10] - Adjusted net profit for 2022-2026E is projected at 6837/9544/8971/9686/10317 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of 13.7%/39.6%/-6.0%/8.0%/6.5% [10] - EBIT margin for 2022-2026E is projected at 4.9%/8.3%/7.9%/7.5%/7.5% [10] - ROE for 2022-2026E is projected at 20.9%/25.8%/19.5%/17.4%/15.6% [10] - PE ratio for 2022-2026E is projected at 8.2/5.3/5.0/4.6/4.3 [10]