TIANSHAN ALUMINUM(SZ:002532) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-08-21 07:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianshan Aluminum is "Buy" (maintained) as of August 20, 2024 [2]. Core Views - Tianshan Aluminum is highlighted as an integrated aluminum enterprise with significant regional advantages, showcasing impressive performance in its semi-annual report [2][3]. - The company is expected to benefit from a rebound in aluminum prices as the traditional peak season approaches, despite facing pressure in the third quarter due to seasonal demand and macroeconomic factors [3]. Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2024, Tianshan Aluminum achieved operating revenue of 137.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 103.5% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 20.7 billion yuan, with a non-recurring net profit of 1.35 billion yuan [2]. - The company forecasts net profits of 41.3 billion yuan, 46.9 billion yuan, and 51.9 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 87.3%, 13.7%, and 10% [2][3]. Production and Profitability - In H1 2024, the company maintained stable production levels with an electrolytic aluminum output of 585,400 tons (up 1.3% year-on-year) and alumina output of 1,093,000 tons (up 6.8% year-on-year) [3]. - The increase in operating profit was primarily driven by higher product prices, with electrolytic aluminum prices rising by 6.7% and alumina sales prices increasing by 26.1% year-on-year [3]. - The effective tax rate was reduced to 15% due to the recognition of a subsidiary as a "National High-tech Enterprise," contributing positively to the company's performance [3]. Strategic Developments - Tianshan Aluminum is actively expanding its industrial chain by investing in bauxite projects in Guangxi and Guinea, and a 2 million-ton alumina project in Indonesia, which will help reduce raw material costs [4]. - The company has additional compliant production capacity of 200,000 tons pending construction in Xinjiang, enhancing its profitability stability [4]. Financial Projections - The company projects revenues of 27.63 billion yuan in 2024, with a gradual increase to 29.33 billion yuan by 2026 [5]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.89 yuan, 1.01 yuan, and 1.12 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5].