南山铝业：氧化铝价格维持高位，海外布局稳步扩张

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Nanshan Aluminum (600219.SH) [1] Core Views - Nanshan Aluminum's performance significantly improved in the first half of 2024, with expected revenue of 15.667 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.189 billion yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 66.68% and 68.61% respectively [1][2] - The price of alumina has risen sharply, with domestic average prices around 3,409 yuan/ton, an increase of approximately 18% year-on-year, and overseas prices averaging 403 USD/ton, up about 14% year-on-year [2] - The company is expanding its overseas operations in Indonesia, with a total capacity of 4 million tons of alumina and 250,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum [2] - Nanshan Aluminum is focusing on high-end products such as automotive and aerospace plates, with high-end product sales accounting for about 14% of total aluminum product sales and contributing approximately 25% to total gross profit [2] - Due to the sustained high prices of alumina, the earnings forecast for Nanshan Aluminum has been revised upward, with projected revenues of 33.107 billion yuan, 35.092 billion yuan, and 37.598 billion yuan for 2024-2026, and net profits of 4.775 billion yuan, 4.877 billion yuan, and 5.256 billion yuan respectively [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, Nanshan Aluminum expects a revenue of 15.667 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.189 billion yuan, marking significant year-on-year growth [1] - The company's high-end products are expected to continue driving profitability, with a gross margin of 25% from these products [2] Market Conditions - The alumina market has seen a strong upward trend, with domestic prices reaching 3,409 yuan/ton and overseas prices averaging 403 USD/ton [2] - The demand for high-end aluminum products is increasing, particularly in the automotive and aerospace sectors [2] Future Outlook - The company is actively expanding its production capacity in Indonesia and focusing on high-value-added products to enhance its market position [2] - The earnings forecast has been adjusted upwards due to favorable market conditions, indicating a positive outlook for the company's financial performance in the coming years [2]