招商南油：上半年归母净利润+45%，看好旺季高景气

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [6] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 3.528 billion yuan in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.78%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.22 billion yuan, up 44.76% year-on-year [2] - The international market saw a significant increase in shipping rates, with the TC7 route price rising by 31.81% year-on-year, driven by geopolitical factors and increased demand for refined oil transportation [2][4] - The domestic market faced challenges with a decline in oil transportation demand due to refinery losses and maintenance, leading to a slower recovery in domestic refined oil transportation [3] - Future outlook indicates a strong supply-demand gap, supporting an upward trend in refined oil shipping rates during the peak season [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company reported a net profit of 1.22 billion yuan, with a significant increase in asset disposal gains of approximately 210 million yuan from the sale of three old vessels [2] - The Q2 2024 results showed a revenue of 1.689 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.80%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 8.14% [2] Market Analysis - Internationally, the average BCTI index for refined oil shipping was 996 points, up 20.28% year-on-year, indicating a volatile market influenced by geopolitical events [2] - The global demand for refined oil shipping is expected to grow by 3.2% in 2024, while the effective supply of MR vessels is limited due to new environmental regulations [2][4] Future Projections - The company is projected to benefit from the upward cycle in the refined oil shipping industry, with net profits expected to reach 2.268 billion yuan in 2024, 2.318 billion yuan in 2025, and 2.353 billion yuan in 2026 [5][7] - The supply-demand gap is anticipated to provide strong support for refined oil shipping rates, with a projected demand growth of 7.5% in ton-miles [4]