Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Aneng Logistics (9956 HK) with a "Buy" rating, citing its position as a leading player in the franchised LTL (Less-than-Truckload) express market and its potential for growth driven by service quality improvements [3][5] Core Views - The LTL express market is expected to grow steadily, with the franchised LTL express market projected to reach RMB 97 3 billion by 2027, growing at a CAGR of 9 1% from 2022 to 2027 [3] - Aneng Logistics, as the leader in the franchised LTL express market, has shown significant profit improvement under its strategic transformation, with gross margin increasing from 8% in 2022 to 16% in Q1 2024 [3] - The company's strategic focus on quality and profit-driven growth has led to enhanced franchisee loyalty and improved unit revenue and cost efficiency [3] Industry Overview - The LTL market is segmented into full-network, regional, and dedicated line models, with the full-network model expected to account for 10% of the LTL market by 2027, up from 7 2% in 2022 [15] - The franchised model, which allows for rapid network expansion, is expected to dominate the full-network LTL market, with the top 5 players increasing their market share from 2 6% in 2018 to 5 6% in 2022 [17] Company Strategy and Performance - Aneng Logistics has undergone a strategic transformation since 2022, focusing on quality and profit-driven growth, which has resulted in improved operational efficiency and cost optimization [21][29] - The company's unit LTL revenue increased to RMB 818/ton in 2023, up 6 6% YoY, and further improved to RMB 827/ton in Q1 2024 [29] - Aneng Logistics has optimized its cost structure through route planning, fleet management, and hub layout adjustments, leading to a reduction in unit transportation and hub costs [30] Financial Projections - The report forecasts Aneng Logistics' adjusted net profit to be RMB 848 million, RMB 1 027 billion, and RMB 1 179 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9 3x, 7 7x, and 6 7x [3][5] - Revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 12 5% from 2023 to 2026, driven by volume growth, pricing improvements, and cost optimization [36] Key Assumptions - The company's business volume is expected to grow steadily, benefiting from industry consolidation and optimized franchisee ecosystems [6] - Pricing improvements are anticipated due to the company's focus on the LTL express market, with enhanced service capabilities driving unit revenue growth [6] - Cost optimization is expected to continue, with unit costs projected to decline as the company benefits from economies of scale and operational efficiency improvements [6]
安能物流：全网零担加盟龙头，服务品质提升下成长可期