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江瀚新材:产销大幅增长,静待行业景气回升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Jianghan New Materials (603281) with a target price of 32.55 CNY over the next six months [1][2]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.17 billion CNY for the first half of 2024, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 310 million CNY, down 16.7% from the previous year [1]. - Despite a decline in revenue, the company experienced significant growth in production and sales volumes, particularly in functional silanes, which saw a year-on-year sales increase of 21.6% [1][2]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to weak downstream demand and a general decrease in industrial product prices, with functional silane prices reaching historical lows [1][2]. - The company is expanding its production capacity and enhancing its supply chain, aiming to increase the functional silane green circular industry chain scale to 182,000 tons per year by the end of 2026 [2][5]. Financial Summary - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.67 CNY, 2.17 CNY, and 2.81 CNY, respectively, with corresponding dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 14x, 11x, and 8x [2][7]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 2.487 billion CNY (+9.18%), 3.063 billion CNY (+23.19%), and 3.699 billion CNY (+20.75%) [7][10]. - The company’s net profit is expected to be 623 million CNY (-4.90%), 810 million CNY (+30.15%), and 1.049 billion CNY (+29.41%) for the same years [7][10]. Production and Capacity Expansion - As of the end of 2023, the company has established an annual production capacity of 15,000 tons for functional silane and 30,000 tons for functional silane intermediates [2]. - The company is also working on a project to produce 60,000 tons of trichlorosilane and 6,000 tons of silicon tetrachloride, which will help alleviate current supply constraints [2][5].