PDH(SH:600048) Guoxin Securities·2024-08-21 10:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][15] Core Views - The company reported a 39.3% decline in net profit attributable to shareholders, with a revenue of 139.2 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.7%. The decline in profit is attributed to a decrease in gross profit margin by 5.2 percentage points to 16.0% and a drop in the settlement rights ratio by 11.7 percentage points to 69.4% [2][8][11] - Despite a decrease in sales area by 31.0% to 9.54 million square meters and a sales amount decline of 26.8% to 173.3 billion yuan, the company maintained its leading position in the industry with a market share increase to 3.68%. The sales contribution from 38 core cities rose by 2 percentage points to 89% [2][11] - The company's debt structure remains stable, with the proportion of interest-bearing debt due within one year at 19.82%, down by 0.99 percentage points from the beginning of the year. The cash balance stood at 146.4 billion yuan, accounting for over 10% of total assets, indicating a reasonable cash flow situation [2][14] Financial Forecasts - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025, expecting net profits of 11.1 billion yuan and 12.3 billion yuan respectively, down from previous estimates of 12.4 billion yuan and 14.6 billion yuan. The corresponding EPS is projected to be 0.92 yuan and 1.02 yuan, with PE ratios of 8.7X and 7.8X respectively [15][16]