YTG(000975) 华创证券·2024-08-21 11:07Investment Rating - Strong Buy (Maintained) with a target price of 20.31 CNY, compared to the current price of 17.41 CNY [1] Core Views - The company's Q2 net profit attributable to the parent company reached a historical high, driven by rising gold and silver prices [1] - H1 2024 revenue was 6.505 billion CNY, up 42.27% YoY, with net profit attributable to the parent company at 1.075 billion CNY, up 46.35% YoY [1] - Q2 2024 revenue was 3.732 billion CNY, up 56.77% YoY and 34.57% QoQ, with net profit attributable to the parent company at 572 million CNY, up 30.53% YoY and 13.7% QoQ [2] - Gold and silver prices in Q2 2024 were 553 CNY/gram and 7,558 CNY/kg, up 23.4% and 36.6% YoY, respectively [2] - The company's gold production cost per gram decreased by 7.4% compared to 2023, contributing to improved profitability [2] Financial Performance - H1 2024 gold production was 4.16 tons, with sales of 4.41 tons; silver production was 82.24 tons, with sales of 74.13 tons [2] - Q2 2024 gold production was 2.2 tons, up 10% QoQ; silver production was 61.4 tons, up 194% QoQ [2] - The company's gross margin for gold was 71.89%, up 11.13 percentage points compared to 2023 [2] - Subsidiaries such as Yulong Mining, Heihe Locke, and Jilin Banmiaozi contributed significantly to the company's net profit [2] Future Outlook - The acquisition of Osino is expected to be completed by August 29, 2024, with the project projected to add 5 tons/year of gold production capacity [2] - The company is expected to achieve net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.256 billion CNY in 2024, up 58.4% YoY, with further growth projected for 2025 and 2026 [2] Valuation and Forecast - The company's 2024-2026 revenue is forecasted to be 9.736 billion CNY, 10.384 billion CNY, and 12.256 billion CNY, respectively [7] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow at a CAGR of 28.8% from 2024 to 2026 [7] - The company's P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 34x in 2023 to 16x in 2026, reflecting strong earnings growth [7]