证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·有色金属 有色金属行业跟踪周报 市场对能化价格高企的长期化定价使得加息 选项摆上台桌，贵金属价格显著回调 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 回顾本周行情（3 月 16 日-3 月 20 日），有色板块本周下跌 11.82%，在全部一级行 业中排名靠后。二级行业方面，周内申万有色金属类二级行业中金属新材料板块下 跌 8.94%，能源金属板块下跌 9.88%，小金属板块下跌 10.48%，贵金属板块下跌 10.73%，工业金属板块下跌 13.30%。工业金属方面，市场逐步定价能源高企长期 化，市场逐步定价加息可能性，工业金属价格显著回调。贵金属方面，市场对能化 价格高企的长期化定价使得加息选项摆上台桌，贵金属价格显著回调，长期看，"滞 涨环境"有助于打开黄金的上行空间。 ◼ 周观点： 铜：LME 存在持续累库预期，国内冶炼厂出口压力增长，铜价环比走弱。截至 3 月 20 日，伦铜报收 11,835 美元/吨，周环比下跌 7.07%；沪铜报收 94,740 元/吨，周环比下跌 5.55%。供给端，截至 3 月 20 日，本周，进口铜矿 T ...

三大指数跳空低开，盘中一度集体放量大跌逾4%，恐慌盘汹 涌而出。沪指尾盘勉强守住3800点关口。在这一年内最为惨 烈的单日调整中，沪指今年以来的涨幅被悉数"吞尽"。 作者：蔡越坤 封图：图虫创意 "销户删app，再也不见。" "不看不动，是不是就不算亏。" "排队去加油，车子已经没了。" 3月23日，A股遭遇"黑色星期一"，投资者纷纷在社交平台上调侃自己的股票投资，宣泄着情绪。 三大指数跳空低开，盘中一度集体放量大跌逾4%，恐慌盘汹涌而出。沪指尾盘勉强守住3800点 关口。在这一年内最为惨烈的单日调整中，沪指今年以来的涨幅被悉数"吞尽"。 全球市场尽墨 截至收盘，沪指跌2.5%，深成指跌2.53%，创业板指跌2.44%。沪深两市成交额为2.43万亿 元，较上一个交易日放量1447亿元，全市场有近5000只个股下跌。 港股市场亦遭遇重挫，恒生指数下跌3.54%，收于24382.47点，创8个月新低；恒生科技指数下 跌3.28%，收于4712.48点。 黄金股大跌 3月23日，A股贵金属板块大跌，赤峰黄金（600988.SH）、盛达资源（000603.SZ）、四川黄 金 （ 001337.SZ ） 跌 停 ， 山 ...

投资建议与投资标的 核心观点：地缘博弈升级，错杀修复可期。滞胀担忧下，贵金属和工业金属金融属性持 续受压制。考虑 SW 有色指数自冲突以来调整幅度超过 20%，若出现边际缓和的信号， 有望迎来修复。远期而言，整体通胀水平抬升意味着远期贵金属乃至工业金属均在蓄势 中。 有色金属行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 有色周报：地缘博弈升级，错杀修复可期 核心观点 投资标的： 相关标的：山东黄金(600547，未评级)、山金国际(000975，未评级)、中金黄金 (600489，未评级)、赤峰黄金(600988，买入)、紫金矿业(601899，买入)、洛阳钼业 (603993，未评级)、中国铝业(601600，未评级)、西部矿业(601168，未评级)、金诚 信(603979，未评级)。 风险提示 下游需求弱于预期、供给端大量释放、美联储降息进程不及预期等。 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色金属行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 21 日 看好维持 | 于嘉懿 | 执业证书编号：S0860525110005 | | --- | --- | | | yujiayi1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021- ...

有色金属行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 有色周报：地缘博弈升级，错杀修复可期 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 核心观点：地缘博弈升级，错杀修复可期。滞胀担忧下，贵金属和工业金属金融属性持 续受压制。考虑 SW 有色指数自冲突以来调整幅度超过 20%，若出现边际缓和的信号， 有望迎来修复。远期而言，整体通胀水平抬升意味着远期贵金属乃至工业金属均在蓄势 中。 投资标的： 相关标的：山东黄金(600547，未评级)、山金国际(000975，未评级)、中金黄金 (600489，未评级)、赤峰黄金(600988，买入)、紫金矿业(601899，买入)、洛阳钼业 (603993，未评级)、中国铝业(601600，未评级)、西部矿业(601168，未评级)、金诚 信(603979，未评级)。 风险提示 下游需求弱于预期、供给端大量释放、美联储降息进程不及预期等。 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色金属行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 21 日 看好维持 | 于嘉懿 | 执业证书编号：S0860525110005 | | --- | --- | | | yujiayi1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021- ...

Group 1 - Precious metals prices, including gold and silver, experienced a significant decline, leading to a collective drop in the A-share market's non-ferrous metal stocks [1] - By midday, several companies saw substantial losses, with 隆达股份 down over 9%, 威领股份, 山金国际, and 永兴材料 each falling more than 7% [1] - Other notable declines included 国城矿业, 众源新材, and 金瑞矿业, which dropped over 6%, while 中金黄金 and 盛达资源 fell more than 5% [1] Group 2 - 隆达股份 reported a decline of 9.46%, with a total market capitalization of 76.35 billion and a year-to-date increase of 18.96% [2] - 威领股份 decreased by 7.38%, with a market cap of 76.22 billion and a year-to-date increase of 123.45% [2] - 山金国际 saw a drop of 7.24%, with a market cap of 811 billion and a year-to-date increase of 20.10% [2] - 永兴材料 fell by 7.13%, with a market cap of 318 billion and a year-to-date increase of 8.68% [2] - 驰宏锌锗 decreased by 7.06%, with a market cap of 418 billion and a year-to-date increase of 13.41% [2] - 国城矿业 dropped by 6.77%, with a market cap of 361 billion and a year-to-date increase of 9.53% [2] - 众源新材 fell by 6.70%, with a market cap of 37.50 billion and a year-to-date increase of 6.67% [2] - 洛阳钼业 decreased by 6.29%, with a market cap of 389.2 billion and a year-to-date decrease of 9.05% [2] - 宏桥控股 dropped by 6.24%, with a market cap of 373.9 billion and a year-to-date increase of 19.94% [2] - 宝武镁业 saw a decline of 6.17%, with a market cap of 168 billion and a year-to-date increase of 10.39% [2] - 兴业银锡 decreased by 6.14%, with a market cap of 735 billion and a year-to-date increase of 16.32% [2] - 华锡有色 fell by 6.03%, with a market cap of 327 billion and a year-to-date increase of 34.96% [2] - 中金黄金 decreased by 5.94%, with a market cap of 1320 billion and a year-to-date increase of 16.61% [2] - 盛达资源 saw a decline of 5.86%, with a market cap of 280 billion and a year-to-date increase of 30.85% [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [6] Core Viewpoints - Financial attributes are under pressure, returning to supply and demand support. The ongoing Iran-Israel conflict is prolonging, leading to significant oil price increases and raising concerns about persistent inflation. In the short term, the compression of interest rate cuts is suppressing overall financial attributes, but the rising inflation level indicates that precious metals and industrial metals are gaining momentum for the long term. The actual supply and demand of various metals may determine the price floor during the fluctuation period [3][9] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Judgment: Financial Attributes Under Pressure, Returning to Supply and Demand Support - The Iran-Israel conflict is escalating, causing oil prices to rise sharply and triggering market concerns about uncontrollable inflation. The FedWatch indicates that the market is pricing in only a 25 basis point rate cut in December 2026. The core PCE in the U.S. rose by 3.1% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month in January. The overall financial attributes are under pressure due to the compressed rate cut space, but the elevated inflation level suggests that precious and industrial metals are building momentum for the future [9][13] 2. Industry and Individual Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a decline of 3.69% in the week ending March 13, ranking 26th among all industries [19][20] 3. Precious Metals: Deepening Stagflation Expectations, Gold Prices May Fluctuate and Accumulate - As of March 13, the SHFE gold price fell by 0.68% to 1,133.00 CNY per gram, while COMEX gold dropped by 2.27% to 5,021.00 USD per ounce. The inventory of SHFE gold increased by 0.38 tons to 105 tons, while COMEX gold inventory decreased by 15.03 tons to 923 tons. The net long position of non-commercial COMEX gold increased by 0.30 thousand contracts, and SPDR gold holdings decreased by 56,500 ounces [14][27] 4. Copper: Financial Attributes Under Pressure, Seasonal Demand Still to be Tested - As of March 13, the SHFE copper price fell by 0.73% to 100,310 CNY per ton, and LME copper decreased by 0.63% to 12,780.5 USD per ton. The domestic refined copper operating rate was 72.92%, up 10.45 percentage points from the previous week. Global visible copper inventory totaled approximately 1.5416 million tons, an increase of 15,100 tons from the previous week [16][24][77] 5. Aluminum: Supply Disturbance Premium Continues, Aluminum Prices Remain Supported - As of March 13, the SHFE aluminum price rose by 0.99% to 24,960 CNY per ton, while LME aluminum fell by 0.19% to 3,439.5 USD per ton. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was stable at 44.325 million tons, with concerns about supply disturbances in the Middle East still present. The average profit for the aluminum industry was approximately 8,822.36 CNY per ton [16][85][87]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the sector [5] Core Views - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to disrupt bullish sentiment, but there is sustained optimism for precious metals during the stagflation cycle [1] - Copper demand remains resilient despite short-term geopolitical disturbances, with a positive long-term outlook [2] - Aluminum prices are experiencing significant volatility due to ongoing overseas conflicts, while domestic demand is gradually transitioning towards a consumption peak [3] - Nickel prices are under pressure from geopolitical disturbances, but supply constraints provide some support [4] - Tin prices are fluctuating due to a tug-of-war between supply and demand factors, with a lack of strong driving forces [8] - The lithium market is seeing increases in both supply and demand, maintaining a trend of inventory reduction [9] - Cobalt prices are experiencing fluctuations due to weak downstream purchasing [10] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The ongoing geopolitical crisis in the Middle East has led to sustained high oil prices, impacting investor sentiment towards precious metals. However, concerns are seen as short-term, with a bullish outlook for the medium term [1][41] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Demand remains strong with a recovery in market transactions as production resumes. Recent expectations for downstream production have improved, indicating a healthy demand base [2] - **Aluminum**: Supply has slightly increased, but high prices are suppressing some demand. The market is transitioning towards a consumption peak, with ongoing geopolitical factors influencing prices [3] - **Nickel**: Prices have decreased due to geopolitical tensions, but supply constraints from Indonesia are providing support [4] - **Tin**: Supply is stable, but demand is weak, leading to a lack of strong price movements [8] Energy Metals - **Lithium**: Both supply and demand are increasing, with a focus on inventory reduction. The market is expected to remain active due to rising demand from the electric vehicle sector [9] - **Cobalt**: Prices are fluctuating with weak demand from downstream sectors, leading to a cautious purchasing environment [10]

Core Insights - The report highlights the continuous improvement in the multi-metal reserves of the company, with a significant increase in gold, silver, lead, zinc, and copper reserves, indicating a stable upward cycle in performance [6][7][9] - The company achieved a revenue of 171 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.9%, and a net profit of 29.7 billion yuan, up 36.7% from the previous year [6][8] - The production cost advantage for gold has been further strengthened, with the company maintaining a position among the top 10 globally in terms of all-in sustaining costs [9][10] Company Performance - The company reported a basic earnings per share (EPS) of 1.1 yuan for 2025, reflecting a growth of 36.8% year-on-year [6] - The total gold resources held by the company reached 280.94 tons by the end of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [7] - The company’s cash dividend distribution plan for 2025 includes a payout of 4.8 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 1.332 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 44.82% [10] Industry Outlook - The multi-metal revenue growth is driven by rising prices of gold, silver, and lead, despite a decrease in production volumes for some metals [8][9] - The company anticipates a significant increase in gold production capacity by 2028, projecting an output of over 18 tons, which is a 137% increase compared to 2025 [9] - The report indicates a favorable outlook for the multi-metal industry, with expectations of continued demand and price increases due to global economic conditions [11]

Group 1: Strategic Planning and Mergers - The company emphasizes a dual strategy of "resource expansion and mergers" to enhance mineral resource reserves for sustainable development [2][3] - There is a focus on both domestic mine integration and overseas resource acquisition as part of the merger strategy [3][4] Group 2: Financial Performance and Dividends - The company plans to maintain stable overall costs in 2026 compared to 2025 [2] - Cash dividends for the past three years totaled CNY 31.23 billion, with specific payouts of CNY 7.77 billion (2023), CNY 10.14 billion (2024), and CNY 13.32 billion (2025) [5] - The dividend payout ratios for these years are 54.59%, 46.64%, and 44.82% respectively [5] Group 3: Production and Market Outlook - The projected gold production for 2026 is between 7 to 8 tons, with other metals expected to match or exceed 2025 levels [5] - The company anticipates that the Osino project in Namibia will start production in the first half of 2027, contributing an annual capacity of 5 tons of gold [3][4] - The company expects gold prices to trend upwards over the next 3 to 5 years due to global economic factors and increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [6] Group 4: IPO and Market Positioning - The H-share issuance is expected to account for no more than 15% of the total share capital post-issuance [5] - The company is actively pursuing its Hong Kong IPO, which is progressing normally and requires regulatory approvals [5][6] - The company aims to differentiate its positioning from Shandong Gold, focusing on overseas gold resource development while Shandong Gold concentrates on domestic resources [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, Shanjin International (stock code: 000975) [1]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 17.099 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.86%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.972 billion yuan, up 36.75% year-on-year [5]. - The cost of gold production has significantly decreased, with the average cost per gram dropping by 3.22 yuan to 142.18 yuan/gram in 2025. The fourth quarter saw costs as low as 126 yuan/gram [5]. - The company has made strategic acquisitions, including the full acquisition of Yunnan Western Mining Co., which enhances its gold resource base and exploration capabilities [5]. - The company plans to initiate an H-share listing to support its global expansion strategy, with funds primarily allocated for mining construction and exploration [5]. Financial Performance - In 2025, the company reported a revenue of 17.099 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.972 billion yuan. The fourth quarter revenue was 2.103 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 38.88% [5][6]. - The projected revenues for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 22.054 billion yuan, 27.636 billion yuan, and 32.204 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 5.890 billion yuan, 7.427 billion yuan, and 8.377 billion yuan [6][7]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve significantly, reaching 45.60% in 2026 [6]. Production and Resource Management - The company’s gold and silver production volumes slightly declined in 2025, with gold production at 7.6 tons and silver at 164.1 tons, down 5.47% and 16.3% year-on-year, respectively [5]. - The company has successfully increased its gold resource reserves by 16.62 tons and silver reserves by 296.57 tons in 2025, indicating strong resource continuity [5]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is advancing its global strategy by initiating an H-share listing, which is expected to enhance its growth potential and support future acquisitions [5]. - The company’s international projects, such as the Osino project in Namibia, are set to commence production in the first half of 2027, with an expected annual gold output of 5 tons [5].