神火股份：煤炭业务拖累业绩，铝冶炼利润有望扩大

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][4][25] Core Views - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 17% in H1 2024, with revenue of 18.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 4.6% [1][5] - The decline in profitability is primarily due to the coal segment experiencing both volume and price drops, with coal production in H1 2024 at 3.2275 million tons, a decrease of 570,000 tons year-on-year [1][5] - The aluminum smelting segment is expected to face pressure in Q3 2024, but there is a projected recovery in aluminum prices and a decline in alumina prices, which may lead to improved smelting profits in the future [1][5] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 18.2 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.28 billion yuan, with a cash flow from operating activities of 4.069 billion yuan [1][5] - The average selling price of aluminum in H1 2024 was 15,608 yuan per ton, with a cost of 11,550 yuan per ton, resulting in a gross profit of 4,058 yuan per ton, remaining stable compared to the previous year [1][5] - The forecast for revenue from 2024 to 2026 is 37.8 billion, 39 billion, and 40.8 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 4.937 billion, 5.800 billion, and 5.857 billion yuan [2][23] Future Development Outlook - The company's future growth is largely dependent on the strong supply chain integration in Xinjiang, including a joint venture with China Power to develop an 800,000 kW wind power project [1][20] - The company is also involved in the exploration of the 5th open-pit coal mine in the Jun Dong coalfield, which has geological reserves of 2.53 billion tons [1][20] - The company is positioned to benefit from the supply-side structural reforms in both the aluminum and coal industries, which are currently in a favorable economic cycle [2][22]