GDPD(SH:600795) Guoxin Securities·2024-08-21 13:01Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guodian Power (600795.SH) is "Outperform the Market" [5][17]. Core Views - The report highlights a significant increase in net profit due to asset transfers, with a 127.35% year-on-year growth in net profit for H1 2024, reaching 6.716 billion yuan, despite a 3.22% decline in revenue [1][6]. - The ongoing electricity reform is expected to stabilize profitability in the thermal power sector, with anticipated stability in electricity and coal prices [1][13]. - The company is actively advancing its renewable energy projects, with a substantial resource reserve and ongoing construction of wind and solar projects [1][13]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, Guodian Power achieved revenue of 85.828 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.22%, while net profit reached 6.716 billion yuan, an increase of 127.35% [1][6]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to lower income from the coal sector and a decrease in electricity selling prices [1][6]. - The increase in net profit is primarily due to the transfer of investment in a subsidiary, resulting in a gain of 4.607 billion yuan from non-current asset disposals [1][6]. Segment Analysis - The coal machinery segment reported a net profit of 1.995 billion yuan, up 51.48%, while the hydropower segment saw a significant decline, reporting a net loss of 0.26 billion yuan [6][9]. - The wind power segment's net profit decreased by 33.10%, while the solar segment increased by 47.60% [6][9]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the ongoing electricity reform will reshape the profitability model of thermal power, leading to more stable income sources [1][13]. - The company has a robust pipeline of renewable energy projects, with 1.7703 million kilowatts of new installations in H1 2024, including 230,000 kilowatts of wind power and 1.5403 million kilowatts of solar power [1][13]. - As of June 2024, the company has a substantial reserve of renewable energy resources totaling 8.4247 million kilowatts [1][13]. Valuation and Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted, with expected net profits of 9.559 billion yuan, 9.308 billion yuan, and 9.976 billion yuan, respectively [2][13]. - The report suggests a reasonable valuation range of 5.90 to 6.43 yuan per share, indicating a premium of 8% to 18% over the current stock price [2][13].