NJTC(SH:601975) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-08-21 13:13Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [3][5] - The target price is set at 7.37 CNY, unchanged from the previous forecast [3][5] Core Views - The report highlights that the refined oil transportation industry is experiencing historical highs in profitability, with the company's net profit increasing by over 45% year-on-year [4][5] - There is significant divergence in market expectations regarding the future outlook of refined oil transportation, but the report suggests that the eastward shift of refineries will support continued demand growth [4][5] - The report recommends a contrarian investment approach, suggesting that the current market concerns about new ship deliveries are overblown [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company recorded a net profit of 1.22 billion CNY, a 45% increase year-on-year [5] - The average daily TCE (Time Charter Equivalent) for MR vessels reached historical highs, with the company’s quarterly net profit showing a slight decline due to the disposal of three MR vessels [5] - The report adjusts the net profit forecast for 2024-2026 to 2.1 billion, 2.4 billion, and 2.5 billion CNY respectively, down from previous estimates of 2.4 billion, 2.5 billion, and 2.7 billion CNY [5] Market Dynamics - The report notes that the capacity utilization rate for refined oil transportation has exceeded threshold levels, and the global shift of refineries is expected to continue driving demand growth [5] - It estimates that refined oil shipping volume increased by 9% in the first half of 2024 compared to 2019, with the average shipping distance extending by over 10% [5] - The report anticipates that the ongoing eastward shift of refineries will help absorb new ship deliveries, maintaining a favorable supply-demand balance [5] Corporate Developments - The company has completed a board restructuring and is expected to leverage its market-oriented capabilities for future growth [5] - The shareholder structure is improving, with bank-related shareholders reducing their stake to 6% [5] - The report indicates that the company’s retained earnings are expected to improve gradually, with a projected return to shareholders in the coming year [5]