天山铝业：公司事件点评报告：2024H1净利润大增，受益铝价上涨及成本优势

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) for 2024H1 [2] Core Views - The significant increase in net profit is attributed to the rise in aluminum prices and cost advantages [2] - The company reported a revenue of 13.785 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 6.83%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.074 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 103.45% [2][4] - The average selling price of electrolytic aluminum increased by approximately 6.7% year-on-year, while the production of electrolytic aluminum reached 585,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.28% [2][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company's revenue was 13.785 billion yuan, down 6.83% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.074 billion yuan, up 103.45% year-on-year; and net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 1.961 billion yuan, up 168.42% year-on-year [2] - For Q2 2024, the company reported a revenue of 6.960 billion yuan, down 11.36% year-on-year but up 1.97% quarter-on-quarter; net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.354 billion yuan, up 161.47% year-on-year and up 88.06% quarter-on-quarter [2] Production and Sales - The production of electrolytic aluminum in H1 2024 was 585,400 tons, up 1.28% year-on-year; the production of alumina was 1.093 million tons, up 6.81% year-on-year [2] - The sales volume of alumina increased by 4%, and the average selling price of alumina rose by 26.1% year-on-year [2] Price Trends - The average price of electrolytic aluminum in H1 2024 was 19,781 yuan per ton, up 6.99% year-on-year and up 4.58% quarter-on-quarter; the average price of alumina was 3,505 yuan per ton, up 12.76% year-on-year [2][4] Future Outlook - The company forecasts revenues of 33.07 billion yuan, 35.267 billion yuan, and 38.501 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits of 4.211 billion yuan, 4.774 billion yuan, and 5.257 billion yuan for the same years [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 7.6, 6.7, and 6.1 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4]