歌尔股份：Solid GPM recovery in 1H24; Poised to benefit from “AI+XR” trend in 2H24E

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Goertek with a new target price (TP) of RMB 25.9, reflecting a 27% upside from the current price of RMB 20.39 [4][12]. Core Insights - Goertek's 1H24 revenue and net profit growth were reported at -11% and +190% year-on-year (YoY), respectively, aligning with earlier profit alerts [2]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) improved to 13.6% in 2Q24, up 4.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and 5.9 percentage points YoY, driven by enhanced efficiency and profitability in acoustics and smart products [2][7]. - The outlook for 2H24 and FY25E is positive, with expectations of continued GPM recovery and increased demand for augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) products, particularly with new launches from major players [2][12]. - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates for FY24-26E have been raised by 19-38% to reflect the strong performance in 1H24 and improved operating leverage [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - 1H24 revenue was RMB 98,561 million, with a net profit of RMB 1,088.1 million, showing a significant recovery from previous quarters [3][11]. - The company expects net profit growth of +164% and +23% YoY for FY24 and FY25E, respectively [2][12]. - The report highlights strong revenue growth in precision components and acoustic products segments, with increases of +21% and +38% YoY, although smart products saw a decline of -32% YoY due to product cycle delays [2][10]. Earnings Revisions - Revenue estimates for FY24E have been adjusted to RMB 98,561 million, with net profit revised to RMB 2,876 million, reflecting a 19% increase from previous estimates [8][9]. - The gross profit margin is expected to stabilize around 11.4% for FY24E, with operating profit margins projected to improve to 3.3% [8][9]. Market Position and Future Outlook - Goertek is well-positioned to capitalize on the upcoming AR/VR product cycle, with anticipated launches from companies like Meta and Sony [2][12]. - The report emphasizes Goertek's leadership in the XR, acoustics, and gaming segments, which are expected to drive market share gains and profitability recovery in FY24 and FY25E [12][15].