Keda Group(600499) 东吴证券·2024-08-22 04:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2024 was impacted by a decline in profits from its associate, Blue Lithium Industry, due to falling lithium prices and adjustments in brine procurement costs [3] - Despite the short-term challenges, the overseas business shows potential for growth, particularly in the construction materials sector, driven by population growth and urbanization in Africa [3] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, reflecting the impact of the first half's performance and the one-time adjustment in brine costs [3] Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 5.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.7%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 450 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 64.2% [3] - The revenue for Q2 2024 was 2.93 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 30.0%, but net profit dropped by 83.5% to 140 million yuan [3] - The company's main business revenue was 5.50 billion yuan in the first half, with a gross margin of 25.6%, down 6.1 percentage points year-on-year [3] Business Segment Analysis - The construction machinery business generated revenue of 2.71 billion yuan, up 29.0% year-on-year, with over 60% of orders coming from overseas [3] - The overseas construction materials business achieved revenue of 1.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, with production from new factories in Kenya and Cameroon contributing to growth [3] - The lithium battery materials segment saw revenue decline to 300 million yuan, down 26.6% year-on-year, due to tightening supply-demand dynamics and falling prices [3] Profitability and Cost Structure - The company experienced increased financial expenses due to currency depreciation in African countries and rising interest rates, leading to a foreign exchange loss of 63.26 million yuan in the first half [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 450 million yuan, down 64.2%, but if excluding the impact from Blue Lithium Industry, the profit would be 320 million yuan, a decrease of 23.5% [3] - The company expects profit recovery in the second half of the year as market conditions improve and pricing strategies are adjusted [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The revised net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are 1.28 billion yuan, 1.67 billion yuan, and 2.13 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The price-to-earnings ratio based on the closing price on August 21 is projected to be 10.0, 7.7, and 6.1 times for 2024-2026 [3]