BABA(09988) 东吴证券·2024-08-22 07:10Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating due to the company's strong business growth, competitive advantages, and valuation attractiveness [2][58] Core Views - The company's strategic investments in multiple businesses have driven revenue growth, with international digital commerce, cloud intelligence, and local services showing significant increases [1][33] - Short-term profitability may decline due to ongoing investments, but long-term profit quality is expected to improve as new businesses turn profitable [1][77] - The company's focus on efficiency and large-scale investments will help build long-term barriers [2][58] Business Performance Summary International Digital Commerce - Revenue reached RMB 292.93 billion, up 32% YoY, driven by increased investments in Choice and Trendyol cross-border businesses [1][54] - Adjusted EBITA improved to -RMB 3.71 billion, narrowing by RMB 379 million QoQ [54] Cloud Intelligence - Revenue grew 6% YoY to RMB 265.49 billion, with public cloud and AI-related products driving growth [1][37] - AI-related products saw triple-digit growth, and the number of paying users on the AI platform increased by over 200% QoQ [37] Local Services - Revenue increased 12% YoY to RMB 162.29 billion, driven by growth in Amap and Ele.me orders, as well as marketing services [1][34] - Losses narrowed significantly due to improved operational efficiency and scale [34] Cainiao - Revenue grew 16% YoY to RMB 268.11 billion, supported by cross-border logistics solutions [84] - Cainiao's global logistics network and end-to-end capabilities are expected to enhance synergies with cross-border e-commerce [36] Taotian Group - GMV grew by high single digits YoY, driven by increased purchase frequency and the 618 shopping festival [73] - The 88VIP membership program saw double-digit growth, exceeding 42 million members [73] Financial Forecasts - Adjusted EPS forecasts for FY2025/2026 were revised to RMB 8.00/8.67, with FY2027 EPS expected at RMB 9.38 [2][58] - Non-GAAP PE ratios for FY2025-2027 are projected at 9.36x, 8.64x, and 7.98x, respectively [2][58] - Revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.2%-9.5% from FY2025 to FY2027, with net profit growth of 13.97%-33.88% [19][44]