HYMD(600971) 国泰君安·2024-08-22 09:11Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 11.99 yuan, down from the previous forecast of 14.31 yuan [5][3]. Core Insights - The company's H1 2024 revenue was 3.893 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.13% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 758 million yuan, down 32.14% [3][2]. - The decline in performance was primarily due to a significant drop in coal prices during the same period. However, the company is expected to see a relief in Q3 performance due to the stabilization of long-term contract prices for coking coal [2][3]. - The company’s coal production and sales have continued to increase, with H1 raw coal production reaching 4.9417 million tons, up 10.33% year-on-year, and commodity coal production at 3.8475 million tons, up 6.98% [3][4]. Financial Summary - H1 2024 average selling price was 954.5 yuan per ton, a decrease of 160.7 yuan per ton year-on-year. The average selling price in Q2 was 893 yuan per ton, down 135 yuan year-on-year and 13 yuan quarter-on-quarter [3][4]. - The company’s estimated EPS for 2024 has been revised down to 1.41 yuan, with projections for 2025 and 2026 at 1.51 yuan and 1.67 yuan respectively [3][4]. - The company’s net profit margin is projected to decline slightly, with a forecasted net profit of 1.687 billion yuan for 2024, down 17.1% from 2023 [4][3]. Market Performance - The company’s stock price has fluctuated between 7.87 and 14.28 yuan over the past 52 weeks, with a current price of 9.48 yuan [6][5]. - The total market capitalization is approximately 11.376 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 1.2 billion shares [6][5]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain stable sales volume in H2 2024, with a projected year-on-year sales price decline of around 10%. Overall performance is anticipated to see slight declines [3][4]. - The company is actively expanding its power generation business, including projects for gas power generation and distributed solar and wind power [3][4].